Market Overview for Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) – October 18, 2025

• Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) declined 1.12% over 24 hours, closing at 0.00663 after testing key resistance levels.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with a high of 0.00681 and low of 0.00657, suggesting short-term uncertainty.
• Volume spiked twice above 2 million, aligning with failed breakout attempts above 0.00675 and 0.00681.
• RSI remains neutral near 50, but MACD divergence hints at weakening bullish momentum.
• Price retested the 20-period MA multiple times but failed to hold above it, reinforcing bearish bias.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at 0.00669 on October 17 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.00681, and a low of 0.00657 before closing at 0.00663 on October 18 at the same time. The pair recorded a total 24-hour volume of 101.5 million ONE and a notional turnover of $674,000 in USDT terms. Price action revealed multiple failed attempts to hold above 0.00675, with bearish pressure intensifying after midday.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a distinct bearish bias, forming several rejection candles near the 0.00675–0.00681 cluster. A key resistance level appears to be forming at 0.00675, which failed to hold during two attempted breakouts. Support is emerging at 0.00662–0.00664, marked by several doji and spinning top patterns suggesting indecision. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed during the session’s closing hours, reinforcing the likelihood of further downward pressure.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward over the 15-minute chart, with price closing below both, indicating a short-term bearish bias. The daily 50/100/200 EMA structure also appears to be bearish, with the 200-period SMA acting as a psychological anchor. MACD (12, 26, 9) showed a bearish crossover late in the session, with the histogram shrinking after a brief bullish divergence. RSI remains in neutral territory, hovering near 50, but has failed to show conviction on either side.

Volatile Moves and Volume

Volatility expanded as price oscillated between 0.00657 and 0.00681, with Bollinger Bands widening during the session. Price spent most of the session below the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions were not met. Notably, volume surged to 3.7 million ONE during a failed breakout attempt above 0.00675, indicating aggressive selling pressure. A divergence between price and volume was observed near the 0.00664–0.00668 cluster, suggesting potential exhaustion of the current bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels for the 0.00657–0.00681 swing highlight key levels at 0.00665 (38.2%) and 0.0066 (61.8%). Price briefly tested 0.00665 twice during the session but failed to consolidate above it. On the daily chart, the 0.00673 (61.8%) level remains a key resistance, with price unable to hold above it during two previous attempts.

Backtest Hypothesis

To implement a backtest strategy using MACD signals for Harmony (ONE) quoted in USDT, it is critical to use the correct ticker symbol. Based on standard conventions and the data structure used here, ONEUSDT (option 1) appears to be the most accurate and widely recognized format for spot trading pairs on major platforms like Binance, KuCoin, and Bybit. Once confirmed, a MACD (12, 26, 9) backtest can be run using daily closing prices from January 1, 2022, to October 18, 2025, to identify Golden and Death Cross signals. For simplicity, the backtest could follow a "buy on Golden Cross, sell on Death Cross" strategy, with optional risk controls such as stop-loss at 2% or take-profit at 5% to improve risk-adjusted returns. The current bearish divergence in MACD suggests a potential Death Cross could be near, making this a relevant time to validate the strategy’s efficacy.