Market Overview for Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT)

• Price declined in a tight range over 24 hours, with bearish momentum emerging after a midday break.
• RSI and MACD showed weakening bullish momentum, with RSI dipping toward oversold levels by late afternoon.
• Volume was moderate early, surged during the late ET session, and diverged from price during key declines.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed early, then expanded after 17:00 ET, signaling heightened volatility.
• A potential bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 20:30 ET, followed by a reversal in price trend.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at $0.0068 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.00667 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.00686 and a low of $0.00644 over the period. Total volume reached 40,932,004 ONE, while notional turnover totaled approximately $278,464. The pair has shown a bearish bias, particularly in the latter half of the day, with price breaking below key intraday support.

Structure & Formations

Price action for ONEUSDT revealed a bearish consolidation phase, with key support levels forming around $0.00670 and $0.00665. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 20:30 ET, indicating a potential trend reversal from a short-term high of $0.00686. A doji at 13:45 ET also signaled indecision. Resistance remains at $0.00681, where price stalled multiple times during the morning session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA around 20:30 ET, confirming a bearish shift. The 50-period line held as a key resistance, limiting short-covering attempts. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-period SMAs are in a bearish alignment, with the 50 SMA at $0.00685 and the 200 SMA at $0.00678, suggesting a continuation of downward bias in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory at 20:30 ET, with the histogram widening as bearish momentum increased. RSI dropped from a neutral 54 at 16:00 ET to 36 by 21:00 ET, entering oversold territory. This divergence between price and RSI suggests exhaustion in the downward move, though a rebound is unlikely without a clear bullish catalyst.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened during the morning session, signaling potential for a breakout or breakdown. The bands expanded after 17:00 ET, with price testing the lower band twice, particularly at $0.00670 and $0.00665. A close below the lower band would confirm a short-term bearish bias, with the next target likely at $0.00660–$0.00655.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained moderate early in the session, peaking at 3.3M ONE at 22:15 ET and again at 05:15 ET. Notional turnover spiked during these periods, aligning with price declines. However, volume diverged slightly from price after 06:00 ET, with a large bearish move occurring on reduced volume, hinting at a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the swing high of $0.00686 and swing low of $0.00644, the 38.2% level at $0.00667 was briefly tested but rejected. The 61.8% level at $0.00657 remains a key target for the next 24 hours. If price finds support at $0.00657, a bounce could test the 50% level at $0.00665.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for ONEUSDT involves using the Bearish Engulfing pattern to trigger short positions. This pattern, observed at 20:30 ET, could be used to enter a short trade with a stop-loss above the high of the prior bullish candle and a target aligned with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level. However, due to the current data limitation—where the Bearish Engulfing signal cannot be retrieved automatically via “get_asset_base_info”—manual intervention or a different symbol format (e.g., ONE-USDT on a specific exchange) is required to validate the pattern and refine the strategy.