Market Overview for Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) – 2025-11-13

Summary
• Price opened at $0.00543 and closed at $0.00528, forming a bearish bias.
• RSI hit overbought and oversold, suggesting volatile momentum swings.
• Volume surged near key resistance levels, indicating possible rejection.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion, reflecting heightened volatility.
• Fibonacci levels highlighted potential support at 0.00534 and resistance at 0.00548.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at $0.00543 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00528 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.00556 and a low of $0.00524 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 88.47 million ONE, while turnover hit $4.81 million, signaling moderate activity with directional volatility. The price action reflected a choppy intra-day trend, punctuated by sharp rebounds and pullbacks.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a clear bearish structure from the afternoon peak, with a descending triangle forming around 0.00546–0.00542 as a key resistance zone. The evening session saw a rejection from that zone, leading to a sharp pullback into 0.00528. A long-legged doji formed at the 0.00545–0.00545 range at 03:45 ET, suggesting indecision after a strong rally. Later, a bullish engulfing pattern at 0.00551–0.00553 during the early morning hours hinted at short-term resilience, though it failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a death cross formation after 18:30 ET, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 50-period line crossed below the 100-period at 22:30 ET, while the 200-period remained above the price throughout, indicating a potential short-term correction within a longer-term bullish bias. The 100-period MA (daily chart) is currently at 0.00541, offering a critical pivot point for near-term direction.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish divergence with price, especially during the late-night recovery phase, where RSI surged into overbought territory while MACD lines remained negative. RSI bottomed at 33.5 during the midday sell-off but rebounded into overbought again at 04:30 ET. This suggests short-term momentum swings, with potential for consolidation or a reversal if RSI fails to re-enter overbought without a corresponding price high. The RSI-Overbought Exit Strategy, as detailed in the backtest section, may offer a viable exit framework for those entering such swings.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands reflected a sharp expansion in volatility, particularly during the 02:30 ET–06:00 ET period, with the price breaking out to the upper band at 0.00555. After a brief overextension, the price collapsed back toward the lower band by 10:00 ET, indicating a volatile but range-bound pattern. The current mid-band sits at 0.00540, suggesting that price may test this level again as a potential support/resistance pivot in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near key resistance at 0.00546–0.00548, with turnover reaching a peak of $126,968.3 at 03:30 ET and another of $1.4 million at 04:30 ET. These spikes occurred alongside sharp reversals and align with key Fibonacci levels (61.8% at 0.00546). The volume profile shows a healthy distribution during the sell-off, with no obvious divergence between price and volume, suggesting the bearish move has broad participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 0.00524–0.00556 swing (05:30–03:30 ET), key levels at 38.2% (0.00540), 50% (0.00539), and 61.8% (0.00546) are critical. The 38.2% level appears to be acting as a short-term support, while the 61.8% level marked a rejection and a bearish pivot. On the daily chart, a retracement of the previous 0.00528–0.00551 move shows 61.8% at 0.00538, where the price is currently consolidating.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI Overbought Exit Strategy, applied to ONEUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12, demonstrated a positive compound return despite significant volatility and drawdowns. While the strategy captured upside during strong bullish legs, it also experienced deep pullbacks, emphasizing the need for additional filters such as moving average alignment or stop-loss rules. The moderate Sharpe ratio suggests that while RSI is a useful momentum tool, it may need to be augmented for improved risk-adjusted returns. The recent price action aligns with these findings, with RSI overbought levels frequently marking potential reversal points.