Market Overview for Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) – 2025-09-24

• Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) declined from 0.00959 to 0.00951 in 24 hours, with bearish momentum and oversold RSI.
• Volatility expanded during the 24-hour period, with Bollinger Bands widening, indicating potential trend continuation.
• Key support appears at 0.00945–0.00943, with rejection observed multiple times, suggesting short-term stabilization potential.
• Turnover reached $15.3 million, with volume surging after 14:30 ET, indicating increased activity before a rally attempt.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.00949–0.00946, signaling short-term bearish bias if broken below 0.00945.

The Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) pair opened at 0.00951 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00951 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.00969 and a low of 0.00922. Total 24-hour volume reached 61.5 million ONE, with a notional turnover of approximately $15.3 million, reflecting moderate but uneven trading activity throughout the period.

Structure and formations over the past 24 hours suggest a bearish bias. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early hours of 2025-09-24 near 0.00949–0.00946, signaling rejection at key support. Multiple attempts to retest the 0.00945–0.00943 range were met with bearish pressure, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. The price action appears to be consolidating near key support, with a potential reversal possible if buying interest reemerges.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are trending downward, with the 50-period line acting as a dynamic resistance. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA above the 100-period and 200-period lines, indicating a medium-term bearish bias. MACD turned negative early in the period, with the histogram expanding as bearish momentum increased. RSI hit oversold territory near 30, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, though the bearish trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late-night hours of 2025-09-24, with the price trading near the lower band after a sharp drop to 0.00922. This expansion may indicate heightened volatility, with a possible reversion to the mean expected. Notably, volume spiked during the 14:30–15:00 ET window, coinciding with a rebound to 0.00958, indicating some short-term buying interest.

Fibonacci retracement levels suggest that the 0.00945–0.00943 range corresponds to the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels of the recent bearish move from 0.00969 to 0.00922. A close above 0.00953 would align with the 50% retracement and could signal a temporary pause in the downtrend. However, continued bearish pressure below 0.00943 may target the next support at 0.00937.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using the 50-period moving average as a trigger for short entries, with a stop-loss above the 20-period MA and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach leverages the bearish divergence in momentum and the consolidation near key support. Historical data suggests that entries on a close below the 50-period MA with RSI below 30 have historically yielded a positive risk/reward profile in similar market conditions. However, given the recent volatility, a trailing stop or time-based exit may be prudent to lock in gains or limit losses if the price unexpectedly rebounds.