Market Overview for Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) as of 2025-09-15

• Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) traded in a 12.5-basis-point range over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.01049 after hitting a high of 0.01113.
• Rising volatility midday shifted to consolidation by 11:45 ET, with volume surging to 10M+ units during the selloff.
• A bearish divergence between price and RSI suggests weakening momentum, with key support at 0.01045 tested.
• Bollinger Bands widened as much as 16 bps midday before narrowing, signaling potential mean reversion.
• Turnover dropped 40% after 08:45 ET amid mixed candlestick signals, suggesting indecision among traders.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at 0.01096 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01049 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.01113 and a low of 0.01041. Total 24-hour volume was 60.4 million units, while total turnover amounted to ~$6.36 million (calculated from volume × average price).

Structure & Formations

The past 24 hours displayed a distinct bearish bias, with a key intraday low at 0.01041 setting a short-term support level. A large bearish candle on 07:45 ET (closing at 0.01075) confirmed a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment, followed by a series of bearish spinning tops and hammers, suggesting indecision. A 61.8% Fibonacci level aligned with 0.01052 was tested twice, acting as a minor support. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 06:30 ET, confirming the downtrend. Key resistances are at 0.01106 and 0.01113, with support at 0.01045 and 0.01036. A long lower wick on 08:15 ET hinted at a potential bounce, but failed to break through the 0.01074 level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA at 07:45 ET, confirming a bearish crossover. Both moved downward thereafter, with the 50SMA now at 0.01056 and the 20SMA at 0.01051. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is at 0.01089 and the 200DMA at 0.01128, placing the current price firmly in oversold territory relative to the 200DMA. The 100DMA is at 0.01095, further supporting the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and diverged with price action, signaling bearish momentum. The histogram has been below zero since 06:30 ET, with MACD crossover confirming the downtrend. RSI dropped into the oversold zone (below 30) at 09:15 ET and hovered around 32 at the 24-hour close, indicating limited short-term bearish potential. A bullish divergence between RSI and price at 10:15 ET may hint at a minor bounce, but it remains unconfirmed.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded to 16 bps between 07:15 ET and 08:30 ET, aligning with a sharp drop in price. The width then contracted to ~9 bps by 10:45 ET, indicating declining volatility. Price closed just above the lower band at 0.01049, suggesting the move may have exhausted near-term bearish pressure. A break below the lower band could confirm further weakness, but the recent contraction implies a potential consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 10.1 million units on 07:45 ET as ONEUSDT broke below key support, followed by a large bearish candle. Turnover also peaked at $1.08 million during that session before tapering off. A bearish volume divergence appeared after 08:45 ET, with declining volume on lower price levels. This signals waning bearish conviction and a potential turning point in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing (0.01067 to 0.01111) shows 0.01052 (38.2%) and 0.01045 (61.8%) as critical support levels. The 61.8% level held briefly at 0.01045 before the price drifted lower. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent bearish leg aligns with the 0.01045 level, suggesting a possible near-term bottoming process.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could utilize the 20/50SMA crossover on the 15-minute chart to time entries, combined with RSI divergence and Fibonacci levels to assess potential reversals. Traders may initiate short positions on a confirmed bearish crossover and close them when RSI shows a bullish divergence or when price retests key Fibonacci support levels with a bullish candlestick. Given the current bearish momentum and oversold RSI, a short-term long position may only be justified on a confirmed breakout above 0.01056 with volume confirmation. This approach could aim to capture mean reversion or a bounce within a defined consolidation pattern.