Market Overview for Hamster Kombat/Tether (HMSTRUSDT)

• Price dipped from 0.000444 to 0.00042 in 24 hours, showing bearish pressure
• Volume surged during early AM ET with 1.87 billion traded at 0.00042
• RSI near 30 suggests oversold conditions, but price failed to rebound
• Bollinger Band contraction at 0.000416–0.000418 indicates low volatility
• Doji and spinning tops emerged near 0.000417–0.00042, hinting indecision

24-Hour Snapshot

Hamster Kombat/Tether (HMSTRUSDT) opened at 0.000444 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, peaking at 0.000448 and falling to 0.000416 before closing at 0.00042 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 2.58 billion, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.10 million. The price action shows a bearish consolidation amid rising volatility during the overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart displayed several bearish patterns. A key bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 0.000442–0.000443 on the morning session, followed by multiple dojis and spinning tops between 0.000417 and 0.00042. These patterns suggest weakening bulls and a potential consolidation phase. The most significant support identified is at 0.000416–0.000418, where the price has tested multiple times over the past 48 hours and bounced back.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish divergence, with both indicators trending downward. Price has spent much of the last 24 hours below these averages, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 100-period and 200-period MA, indicating a bearish crossover and continued downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative throughout the session, with a weak bullish divergence observed near 0.000418. RSI dipped to 30 near the 0.000416 support level, signaling an oversold condition, but price failed to mount a meaningful rally. This could indicate a potential buying opportunity, but only if bulls can reclaim the 0.000423–0.000425 level.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened significantly around 0.000416–0.000418, signaling low volatility and a potential breakout or reversal. Price has remained within the lower band for much of the day, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend unless a breakout occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 1.87 billion at 0.00042 during the overnight hours, confirming the bearish breakout. However, there were notable divergences in the late morning and early afternoon, where price rose but volume declined, hinting at weak follow-through. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, peaking near 0.00042 and declining as price moved lower.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.000444 to 0.000416, the 38.2% level at 0.000429 and 61.8% level at 0.000434 acted as key resistance levels. Price failed to break through the 38.2% level, which could signal further bearish movement toward the 0.000416 support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed price behavior, a potential backtesting strategy could be to enter a short position on a close below 0.000418, with a stop-loss above 0.000422 and a target at 0.000411. This approach aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and the consolidation near key support. The strategy could be refined by combining Fibonacci retracements and RSI divergence to confirm entries. If volume confirms the breakout, the trade could have a higher probability of success.