Summary
• Price formed bearish engulfing and dark cloud cover patterns during key 5-minute swings.
• RSI approached oversold territory near 0.0404–0.0405 but failed to trigger a strong rebound.
• Volatility expanded into the final 6 hours, with volume surging over 52,000 at 07:15 ET.
• Bollinger Bands widened as the pair drifted below its 20-period moving average.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.0409 and 0.0411 showed retest resistance during consolidation.
At 12:00 ET, Haedal Protocol/USDC (HAEDALUSDC) opened at 0.0416, reached a high of 0.0417, and closed at 0.0398 after hitting a low of 0.0396. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 559,934.5, with notional turnover reflecting increased bearish momentum in the final 10 hours.
Structure & Formations
A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.0415–0.0412 during the 18:00–18:15 ET hour, confirming a reversal from bullish to bearish sentiment. A dark cloud cover pattern reappeared at 0.0416–0.0412 during the 21:00–21:15 ET hour, reinforcing downward pressure. These patterns, when paired with a lack of follow-through buying, suggest a probable breakdown in the 0.04–0.0410 range.
Moving Averages
The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 5-minute chart have been trending lower since 18:00 ET, with the price now trading below both. The 50-period daily MA remains above 0.0420, indicating medium-term bearish divergence. This suggests a potential shift in momentum toward a broader downtrend.
Momentum Indicators
The MACD histogram turned negative after 18:00 ET, with a bearish crossover occurring at 21:30 ET. The RSI fell below 30 at 05:15 ET, reaching a low of 28 before a brief rebound to 34. This suggests a possible oversold bounce, but the inability to break above 0.0409 implies sellers remain in control.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands began to widen during the 18:00–22:00 ET window, with price reaching the lower band by 05:15 ET. The recent range has remained confined between 0.0396–0.0405, suggesting a period of consolidation following the breakdown.
Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked to 52,665.7 at 07:15 ET, coinciding with a sharp decline from 0.0403 to 0.04. This confirms distribution and signals a potential short-term bottoming process. The lack of buying interest above 0.0412 suggests a lack of conviction in any near-term recovery.
Fibonacci Retracements
The 38.2% retracement level at 0.0409 acted as resistance twice, while the 61.8% level at 0.0411 showed similar reluctance. This suggests that buyers are hesitant to push the pair above these levels unless a breakout occurs with increasing volume.
The market appears to be entering a consolidation phase after the recent bearish thrust. A test of 0.0396 could confirm a potential short-term bottom, but a failure to hold above this level may expose 0.0390 in the next 24 hours. Investors should remain cautious about aggressive long positions given the current momentum and bearish technical structure.
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