Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT): Volatile 24-Hour Move Amid Divergence and Reversal Signals

Summary
• Price swung between 0.0630 and 0.0667 over 24 hours, closing near 0.0648.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought/oversold cycles, with mixed momentum.
• Volume surged late in the session, but price action diverged.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.06538 on 2025-11-08 at 17:00 ET and closed at 0.06489 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.06672 and a low of 0.06303. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 29,870,460, and notional turnover amounted to $1,953,227. Price action showed a volatile session, including sharp rebounds from support and failed breakouts.

Structure & Formations

Price found key support near 0.0630 and resistance at 0.0667 during the session. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.06672, signaling a potential top. A bullish reversal occurred at 0.06303, indicating possible near-term support. A doji at 0.06672 and another at 0.06489 marked indecision at critical levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price oscillated around the 20- and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a range-bound environment. The 20SMA crossed the 50SMA to the downside near the session’s end, hinting at bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is near 0.0650, acting as a potential pivot.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart as the session closed, reinforcing the bearish bias. RSI moved into overbought territory (above 70) during the midday peak but fell below 30 during the late-night dip, indicating oversold conditions. These extremes suggest exhaustion in both directions.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the upper band during the midday rally and touched the lower band during the overnight sell-off. The bands were relatively wide, signaling high volatility. A contraction in the 15-minute band was observed during consolidation periods, suggesting a potential breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the late-night rally (0.0630–0.0648) but failed to confirm a strong move. A divergence between price and volume was evident in the midday peak, suggesting weak momentum. Turnover increased as prices approached key levels, indicating heightened participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the overnight low (0.06303) to the midday high (0.06672) showed key retracement levels at 0.0651 (38.2%) and 0.0645 (61.8%). Price bounced near 0.0645 and then consolidated, suggesting short-term support may hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy tested over the full period showed a total return of -44.7%, with a poor Sharpe ratio of -0.48 and large drawdowns (max -59.6%). Average losses were larger than average gains, highlighting a negative risk-reward profile. The poor performance suggests that without tighter risk controls or refined entry rules (e.g., multi-timeframe validation), this strategy may not be viable. The technical indicators—MACD, RSI, and moving averages—used in this strategy appear to align with the volatility and momentum shifts observed in the 24-hour chart. However, without additional filters, they may generate false signals during choppy price action.