Market Overview: The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) Sees Late Rebound After Morning Downtrend

• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) declined to a low of $0.0825 before staging a late recovery, ending near session highs.
• A bearish breakdown attempt was rejected, with volume and momentum picking up during the recovery.
• Volatility and turnover both expanded during the final 12 hours, signaling a shift in short-term sentiment.
• RSI moved into oversold territory but failed to confirm further downside, hinting at a possible bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened in the latter half of the day, reflecting rising uncertainty and potential for a breakout.

GRTUSDT opened at $0.0844 on October 5, 2025 (12:00 ET-1), and hit a 24-hour low of $0.0822 before rallying to close at $0.0846 at 12:00 ET on October 6. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 18,830,889, with a notional turnover of $1,595,714. The price action suggests a rejection of a bearish breakdown and a re-accumulation pattern forming as buyers stepped in during the late afternoon and evening.

On the 15-minute chart, GRTUSDT formed several bearish setups early in the session, including a key bearish engulfing pattern and a rejection at the 0.083 support level. However, these were followed by bullish momentum signs late in the day, including a bullish engulfing at 0.0834 and a strong close near the top of the day's range. A key support level appears to have formed around $0.0825–0.0827, which held during a test in the late afternoon and early evening.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed into a bullish bias in the latter part of the day, with price closing above both. The MACD flipped to positive territory by the end of the session, confirming the reversal in momentum. RSI bottomed out near oversold levels (around 30) and began a sharp upward move, suggesting a potential bounce. Bollinger Bands expanded during the afternoon and evening, with price closing near the upper band at $0.0846, signaling a potential continuation of the rally.

Key resistance levels to watch in the coming 24 hours include $0.0847–0.0848 and $0.0850–0.0855, while support remains at $0.0830–0.0825. The price appears to have bounced off a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at $0.0827, suggesting a potential base for a short-term rally. The next 24 hours may see a test of the $0.0850 level, though a retest of $0.0825 is possible if the rally stalls. Traders should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated and divergences may signal a reversal if not followed through.

The backtest strategy described involves a mean-reversion approach focused on the 15-minute timeframe, using RSI and Bollinger Band signals. It identifies overbought and oversold conditions and enters trades based on price rejections near the bands or RSI divergence. Given today’s price behavior, this strategy would have triggered an entry near $0.0825 in the late afternoon as RSI hit oversold levels and price approached the lower Bollinger Band. The subsequent rebound and close near the upper band would have confirmed a bullish signal.