Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) – October 9, 2025

• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) declined from 0.0846 to 0.0799 over 24 hours, with bearish momentum and a key support at 0.08.
• High volatility seen in early session, followed by consolidation and a pullback below key moving averages.
• Volume increased in morning hours, but notional turnover declined late, signaling weakening conviction.
• MACD turned negative, RSI entered oversold territory, and Bollinger Bands showed contraction late in the session.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.0816 and 0.0796 could act as potential turning points in the next 24–48 hours.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.0825 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0799 by the same time on October 9. The 24-hour range saw a high of 0.0846 and a low of 0.0796. Total volume for the session was 42,633,652.0, while total notional turnover amounted to approximately $3.35 million. The price has shown a clear bearish bias, with bearish engulfing patterns and a breakdown below key psychological and technical levels.

Structural analysis highlights a key support at 0.08, with 0.0816 acting as a potential short-term resistance level. A doji formed near 0.0815 in the afternoon, signaling indecision. The price has also tested the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a potential oversold condition. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly in the late morning, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are also aligned bearishly, suggesting the pair remains in a downtrend.

MACD turned negative in the afternoon and has remained bearish, with a bearish crossover visible. RSI has entered oversold territory at 29, which historically has been a potential reversal signal, though confirmation is needed. Bollinger Bands show a contraction in the last few hours, suggesting a potential breakout or continuation. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bullish swing (from 0.0796 to 0.0846) aligns with 0.0816, a key level to watch for potential reversal.

GRTUSDT appears to be in a consolidation phase after a sharp decline earlier in the session. The pullback to 0.0799 may offer a short-term buying opportunity, but a close below 0.08 would likely trigger further bearish action. Traders should monitor volume and price action near 0.08 and 0.0816 for signs of strength or weakness. A sustained move above 0.0816 could challenge key resistance levels, but risks remain skewed to the downside in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
The recent price behavior suggests a potential mean-reversion strategy could be viable, particularly around the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.0816. A backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position with a stop loss just below 0.08 and a take profit near 0.0825, targeting a pullback from oversold RSI and a bullish breakout from the Bollinger Band. The strategy would benefit from increased volume near key support levels and would ideally use a 15-minute RSI divergence as a confirmation signal. This approach could be tested across multiple recent bearish pullbacks to evaluate consistency and risk-reward ratios.