Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT): October 4, 2025

• GRT/USDT declined by -6.7% over 24 hours with bearish momentum in late ET trading.
• Volatility increased with a 4.1% range, but volume was unevenly distributed.
• Key support tested at 0.0825–0.0830, and a bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.0862.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while MACD showed bearish divergence from mid-session.
• Bollinger Bands expanded from 0.084–0.086 to 0.082–0.085, suggesting range consolidation expected.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.0874 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0831 by the same time on October 4. The 24-hour range was 0.0874–0.0891, with total traded volume of 65,115,804.0 and turnover of 5,609,424.0 USD. Price moved lower with bearish conviction, forming several key patterns including a bearish engulfing candle at 0.0862 and a long lower shadow at 0.0831.

Structure and formations indicate strong bearish control, with support levels forming at 0.0830–0.0835 and resistance at 0.0865–0.0870. A bullish doji appeared at 0.0860, suggesting potential consolidation ahead. However, the larger 15-minute chart remains bearish, with price failing to retest key psychological levels above 0.0875.

The MACD turned negative in the final hours of trading, confirming bearish momentum, while RSI dipped into oversold territory at 28–30. Bollinger Bands expanded from a narrow range (0.084–0.086) to a wider 0.082–0.085, indicating heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band, hinting at potential bounce or further downside. Volume increased during the bearish leg, confirming strength in the downward move.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.0874–0.0891 swing show 38.2% at 0.0877 and 61.8% at 0.0869. These levels could act as short-term resistance if price reverses. A key pivot for bearish continuation lies below 0.0830, with a break likely leading to a retest of the 0.0824 level.

Backtest Hypothesis:

The backtesting strategy outlined involves a bearish breakout system that triggers short positions when price breaks below a 20-period 15-minute EMA and closes below key Fibonacci support levels (38.2% or 61.8%). Stop-loss is set at the recent swing high, and take-profit is placed at the next Fibonacci or Bollinger Band level.

Given the current structure of GRTUSDT, this strategy would have been activated during the 0.0862–0.0831 leg, with a stop just above 0.0866 and a target at 0.0824. The MACD divergence and bearish candlestick patterns align with this approach. A backtest over the past 60 days could confirm the strategy’s efficacy in similar bearish environments.