Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT)

Summary• Price opened at 0.06629 and closed at 0.06490 after a 24-hour range of 0.0631 to 0.06676.
• RSI and MACD show a bearish bias with potential oversold conditions in the final hours.
• Volatility increased through the night, with peak volume in the 04:45–05:00 ET window.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.06629 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.06490 by the same time the next day. The price traded between 0.0631 (low) and 0.06676 (high), with a total volume of 97,024,100 tokens and a turnover of approximately $6,517,700 during the 24-hour period. The price action formed a bearish consolidation pattern after reaching a short-term high in the afternoon hours.

Structure & Formations

Price tested a key resistance level near 0.0667–0.0668 twice during the day but failed to hold above it. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.0663–0.0664 between 22:45–23:00 ET, followed by a small bearish reversal at 0.0663–0.0664 in the early morning. A significant support level appears to be forming around 0.0645–0.0648, which saw repeated bounces and volume confirmation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias. The daily chart shows the price remains below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, suggesting a continuation of the medium-term downtrend. The 200-period moving average has not been tested but is likely a significant support area further down near 0.0630.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the late morning and remained in negative territory through the day, confirming bearish momentum. RSI hit oversold levels below 30 in the early hours of the morning, indicating potential for a bounce, though a sustained recovery has not materialized. The RSI divergence in the 0.0653–0.0657 range suggests weakening bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after midnight as price traded near the lower Bollinger Band, particularly from 00:45–02:00 ET. A contraction in volatility occurred during the afternoon, leading to a breakout that failed at the upper band. Price has since settled near the mid-band, with no clear directional bias from the Bollinger squeeze observed earlier.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning between 00:15–01:00 ET and again in the early afternoon, indicating increased selling pressure. The highest notional turnover occurred around 04:45–05:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop from 0.0655 to 0.0649. Price and volume are aligned in a bearish confirmation pattern, with volume increasing on down moves and decreasing on rallies.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retracement of the 0.06616–0.06583 swing occurred near 0.06599, where price paused before declining further. The 61.8% level at 0.06557 was tested twice but failed to provide a strong rebound. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the 0.06676–0.0631 move is at 0.06444, which has shown early signs of becoming a critical support.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see a test of the 0.0645–0.0648 support range. A break below this area could trigger a move toward 0.0635–0.0640, but a rebound above 0.0655 would suggest a temporary pause in the downtrend. Investors should remain cautious due to the high volatility and mixed momentum signals.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest hypothesis explored a short-term overbought-bounce strategy using RSI to time exits and entries. However, the data reveals that this approach underperformed, with deep drawdowns and a negative net return. The strategy may struggle without additional filters, such as trend alignment or volume confirmation. Investors could consider incorporating moving average crossovers or Bollinger Band volatility triggers to refine entries and manage risk more effectively.