Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT)

Summary
• GRTUSDT traded in a bullish consolidation pattern with a 6.5% move to $0.06519.
• Strong bullish momentum was confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility expanded sharply post 08:00 ET, with turnover surging to $79.2M.
• Key resistance at $0.06479 and support at $0.05886 defined a tight 15-min range.
• Bollinger Bands showed increasing tightness, suggesting a potential breakout.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.05405 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.06519 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET. The price reached a high of $0.06565 and a low of $0.05354 over the 24-hour period. Total volume for the period was 32,079,660, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,766,773 (calculated using average price and total volume).

Structure & Formations

GRTUSDT exhibited a bullish consolidation pattern on the 15-minute chart, marked by a key support at $0.05886 and resistance at $0.06479. A strong bullish engulfing pattern appeared at the opening of the 15th candle on 08:00 ET, indicating a shift in momentum. A doji formed at $0.06002, suggesting indecision following the sharp rally. The price has remained within this range since the breakout on 08:00 ET.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed in favor of bullish momentum, with the 20 EMA now above the 50 EMA. On the daily chart, the 50-period EMA is above the 200-period EMA, suggesting an upward bias in the broader trend. The 100-period EMA acts as a potential dynamic support at $0.05951.

MACD & RSI

MACD has shown positive divergence, with the line crossing above the signal line near $0.0620. The RSI has moved into overbought territory (above 70), indicating a potential correction. However, the RSI remains within a bullish channel and may continue to trend upward if the price remains above $0.0620.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded after the breakout at $0.06006, with the bands widening as the price moved higher. The price has consistently traded above the upper band since 08:00 ET, indicating strong bullish momentum. A contraction phase between $0.05886 and $0.05941 may suggest a potential retracement to $0.06001.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly at 08:00 ET, confirming the breakout move above $0.06006. The notional turnover increased from $21M to $79.2M, aligning with the price movement. A divergence between price and volume was observed around 11:15 ET, suggesting a potential pause in the bullish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price has moved past the 61.8% retracement level at $0.0620 and is currently near the 76.4% extension at $0.06337. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at $0.05951 has provided strong support, and the 61.8% level at $0.06100 could act as a potential resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy tested over this period demonstrated a total return of 0.87% with an annualised return of 0.37%. While the Sharpe ratio of 0.056 is low, the strategy has shown resilience with a max drawdown of 13.20%. This aligns with the observed technical conditions, where price and volume confirmed the breakout while momentum indicators suggested the potential for continued bullish movement. Investors should consider the volatility and overbought conditions before entering new positions, and the backtest results indicate that such a strategy may perform better under extended bullish trends and low volatility environments.