Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT)

• Price action shows a 24-hour range-bound trend with oversold RSI suggesting potential reversal
• Volatility has increased in the last 8 hours, with a 1.2% price drop from midday
• Bollinger Band contraction suggests consolidation ahead of a potential breakout
• Volume surged in late morning but has declined since, signaling waning bullish conviction

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.06464 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.06466 by 12:00 ET today, with a daily high of $0.06537 and a low of $0.06203. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 55.4 million contracts, translating into $3.52 million in notional turnover. Price action has shown a clear range-bound pattern, with a late-day rally from the 15-minute RSI oversold zone likely drawing in short-term buyers.

On the 15-minute chart, key support appears to have held around the 0.0623–0.0625 range, with a shallow bounce following a sharp decline earlier in the day. Resistance at the 0.0648–0.0650 level has stalled recent buying pressure, suggesting that a breakout above this area could signal renewed bullish momentum. A doji formed at the 0.0644 level around 04:45 ET, indicating indecision and possible exhaustion in the current trend.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the 20-period EMA above the 50-period EMA, a mildly bullish sign, though the 50-period line has started to flatten in recent hours. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA is currently above the 200-day SMA, signaling a longer-term bullish bias, though it remains to be seen if today’s price action will reinforce or challenge this.

MACD has shown a bearish crossover, with the histogram shrinking in recent hours, suggesting that the downward momentum is losing steam. The RSI has oscillated between overbought and oversold levels throughout the day, with a recent entry into oversold territory (<30) at 05:00 ET, potentially signaling a short-term reversal. Bollinger Bands have contracted in the last 4 hours, pointing to a period of consolidation that may precede a directional move.

A Fibonacci retracement on the 15-minute swing from $0.06203 (low) to $0.06537 (high) places key levels at 38.2% ($0.06385) and 61.8% ($0.06431), both of which have seen price consolidation in the last 8 hours. Volume has seen a significant spike between 19:00 and 21:00 ET, coinciding with the sharp decline, but has since tailed off. Notional turnover is positively correlated with volume, suggesting that price declines were accompanied by larger trades. No clear divergence was observed between price and volume in the last 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-oversold strategy for GRTUSDT, tested from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-29, leverages technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD discussed above. By entering long positions daily when RSI-14 dips below 30 and exiting with a fixed 20% take-profit and 10% stop-loss, the strategy aims to capitalize on short-term mean reversion in volatile crypto pairs. Recent price action has seen GRTUSDT entering the oversold zone, suggesting a potential entry point for this strategy. The strategy’s performance is detailed in the interactive report, which includes trade logs, equity curves, and risk-adjusted returns. Traders may consider adjusting the stop-loss or take-profit levels based on current volatility.