Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT)

• The GRTUSDT pair rose to a 24-hour high of $0.0886 before retreating to close near $0.0882, showing a positive bias in price action.
• Momentum, as reflected in RSI, remained balanced near overbought levels, suggesting potential consolidation or a pullback.
• Volume surged during the late New York session, particularly around 19:30–20:00 ET, but failed to push price higher, hinting at internal resistance.
• A key Fibonacci level at $0.0881 provided short-term support, while resistance appears to be forming at $0.0885–0.0886.
• Bollinger Bands remained wide, indicating elevated volatility, with price trending above the midline, favoring a bullish outlook.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.0856 on October 2, 2025, and traded as high as $0.0886 during the 24-hour period, before closing at $0.0882 on October 3. The pair posted a total volume of 59,586,889.0 tokens and a notional turnover of approximately $5,154,962.00. The price action revealed a strong late-ET rally and a consolidation phase overnight, with key resistance forming near $0.0885 and support emerging at $0.0877–0.0881.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a series of bullish engulfing and inside bar patterns during the late afternoon and early evening Eastern Time, supporting a short-term bullish bias. However, a bearish spinning top at $0.0886 during the 00:15–00:30 ET window and a subsequent bearish inside bar signaled weakening momentum. Notable support levels emerged at $0.0877–0.0881, with $0.0881 acting as a critical floor. A failed breakout above $0.0885–0.0886 suggests resistance is holding.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed the price consistently above both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, indicating a short-term bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-SMA were closely aligned, while the 200-SMA acted as a longer-term floor at ~$0.0870. The price closed above the 50-SMA on the daily timeframe, suggesting intermediate-term strength.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD remained above the zero line, with a narrowing histogram indicating fading momentum. RSI hovered near 60–65, a neutral to slightly overbought zone, which could hint at a possible pullback or consolidation phase. A bearish divergence was observed in the overnight session, suggesting caution for further upward moves without strong volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained elevated, with Bollinger Bands stretching to a width of ~$0.0014, indicating increased market participation. Price spent much of the session near the upper band, but a pullback into the mid-band during the overnight session suggests a potential retest of the $0.0881 level. The current volatility profile suggests traders may be positioning for a directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late New York trading session, particularly around 19:30–20:00 ET, with a large volume candle at $0.0885–0.0886. However, the price failed to break out above $0.0886, indicating internal resistance. Overnight, volume dropped sharply, coinciding with a bearish consolidation. The discrepancy between volume and price movement suggests a potential reversal or consolidation phase ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $0.0856 to $0.0886, key retracement levels include $0.0877 (23.6%), $0.0879 (38.2%), and $0.0881 (50%). The price found support near $0.0881 and $0.0877–0.0879, with resistance forming at the 61.8% level of ~$0.0885. A break above $0.0885 could extend the rally toward $0.0889–0.0891, while a retest of $0.0877 could trigger a deeper pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed support at $0.0881 and the resistance at $0.0885–0.0886, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish breakout above $0.0885, with a stop loss placed below $0.0877. A target could be set at $0.0889–0.0891, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension and the upper Bollinger Band. This approach would seek to capitalize on the elevated volatility and the current bullish bias in the short-term structure. However, given the bearish divergence in RSI and the lack of sustained volume confirmation above $0.0886, traders should remain cautious of a false breakout or consolidation.