Market Overview: The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-05)

• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) traded within a defined range today, with a modest upward bias in the second half of the session.
• Key resistance appeared near 0.0856–0.0861, with pullbacks testing 0.0846–0.0849 support clusters.
• Momentum picked up after 02:00 ET with higher highs and volume, signaling potential bullish continuation.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours of 05:00–08:00 ET, coinciding with sharp price increases.
• Turnover spiked in the 05:00–08:00 ET window, confirming strength in the upward move.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.0822 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0871 and a low of 0.0822, and closed at 0.0845 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 101,855,451.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $8,430,102.85. The price action reflected a strong recovery after mid-session consolidation, with buyers asserting control in the early hours of the new day.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish flag pattern between 02:00 and 08:00 ET, as it broke out from a descending channel. A strong 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 05:00 ET, confirming the breakout. The key support levels were found at 0.0846–0.0849, while resistance emerged at 0.0856–0.0861. A potential consolidation phase began after reaching 0.0871, indicating a potential reversal or consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bullish crossover around 04:30 ET, reinforcing the upward bias. The price stayed above both moving averages during the recovery phase, and the 50-period line acted as a dynamic support in the 05:00–08:00 ET window. On the daily chart, the 200-period moving average remains a critical long-term reference point for bearish pressure, though it is not yet reached.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bullish around 02:00 ET with a positive crossover, and both the histogram and the MACD line expanded during the rally. RSI rose from 55 to 68 during the 05:00–08:00 ET window, indicating moderate momentum and no immediate overbought condition. However, the RSI pullback after the high at 0.0871 suggests a possible near-term consolidation or correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the breakout phase, pushing prices to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. The expansion occurred in the 05:00–08:00 ET window, coinciding with the move to 0.0871. Prices subsequently retraced into the middle band during the afternoon. The lower band remained near 0.0843–0.0846, acting as a potential support zone for near-term buyers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 05:00–08:00 ET window, with the highest single 15-minute volume of 2,024,466.0 at 05:00 ET. Turnover spiked from $182,825.0 to over $1,179,600.0 during this phase, confirming the strength of the breakout. A divergence appeared in the latter half of the session, with volume tapering off despite price lingering near the upper range of the day, suggesting caution among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 05:00–08:00 ET rally, 61.8% retrace occurred at around 0.0859–0.0861, which coincided with the observed resistance. A 38.2% retracement at 0.0852–0.0853 marked a key support/resistance pivot point during the pullback. These levels could define the near-term price action as the market consolidates or retests them.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves a breakout-based approach, where long entries are triggered when price closes above a 15-minute upper Bollinger Band or 0.1% above a 50-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed just below the most recent low of the consolidation phase. The target is to capture the first 25% of the Fibonacci extension from the breakout. This aligns with the observed behavior today, where breakout confirmation was supported by volume and MACD strength. The strategy could benefit from incorporating RSI divergence as an early reversal signal during consolidation phases.