Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis to 12:00 ET, 2025-09-21

• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) traded lower by -1.11% over the last 24 hours, closing near key support at 0.0931–0.0935.
• Volatility expanded midday with a 58-point high-low swing and volume spiked to 418,570 during the breakdown.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening momentum after 17:00 ET, with bearish divergence between price and volume.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.0944–0.0939, followed by a breakdown below 0.0940 that confirmed bearish sentiment.
• Price remains within a descending channel, with the 0.0931–0.0925 zone critical for near-term reversal potential.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.0943 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0948, a low of 0.0925, and closed at 0.0929 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was 11,717,666, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,104,100. A bearish bias emerged after a key breakdown below 0.0940, supported by bearish divergence in volume and momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

Price action on GRTUSDT showed a bearish bias throughout the session, with a breakdown below the 0.0940 level confirming a potential short-term downtrend. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.0944–0.0939 before the breakdown, signaling a shift in sentiment. Following the breakdown, price remained below key psychological and Fibonacci levels, with the 0.0931–0.0925 zone acting as the next probable support level. A doji formed near 0.0935 during the final hours of the session, hinting at indecision and potential consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key price levels after 18:00 ET, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price remained below both indicators for most of the session, with the 50-period MA acting as dynamic resistance during brief rebounds. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MA cluster remained aligned in a bearish configuration, suggesting continued downward pressure if the current range fails to hold.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 17:00 ET, with the histogram narrowing and the signal line crossing below zero, signaling weakening bullish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 0.0930 but failed to trigger a rebound, indicating bearish dominance. Divergence between RSI and price occurred during the breakdown below 0.0940, suggesting continued bearish pressure and limited short-term upside potential. If RSI fails to rise above 50, the downtrend may persist.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the 18:00–04:00 ET window, indicating increased volatility during the breakdown phase. Price closed near the lower band at 0.0931, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a bounce. However, the bands have since contracted slightly during the final hours of the session, indicating a potential pause in volatility. If the lower band holds as support, a test of the 0.0925 level could follow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 418,570 at 15:45 ET during a sharp decline from 0.0933 to 0.0930, confirming the breakdown in price. The notional turnover rose to $38,670 during this candle, suggesting significant short-term positioning. However, volume remained muted during subsequent rebounds, indicating limited buying interest. A divergence between rising price and falling volume during a late-session consolidation period suggests the current bounce is fragile.

Fibonacci Retracements

The breakdown from 0.0940 to 0.0931 aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior bullish swing. A rebound to 0.0935–0.0939 could test the 50% retracement level, with the 61.8% level at 0.0943 acting as a probable resistance area. If price fails to reclaim 0.0940, it may test the 0.0925–0.0928 zone as the next support area. A break of 0.0925 could open the path toward 0.0920.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves using a combination of RSI divergence, bearish engulfing patterns, and volume confirmation to identify short-term bearish setups. In the case of GRTUSDT, the bearish engulfing pattern at 0.0944–0.0939 was confirmed by bearish RSI divergence and a volume spike during the breakdown. A backtest applying this strategy to similar setups over the last month would aim to measure its effectiveness in capturing short-term declines with tight stop levels. The current setup appears to meet the criteria for a potential short entry, with a stop above 0.0943 and a target near 0.0925.