Market Overview: The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) on 2025-12-30

Summary
• Price declined from 0.03633 to 0.03544, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming near the high.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Volatility expanded significantly with increased turnover of $89,628.88 during the 19:15 ET selloff.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with 0.03541, offering temporary support.
• Volume spiked to 1.8 million contracts at 06:45 ET, confirming a sharp recovery leg.

24-Hour Price and Volume

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.03624 on 2025-12-29 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.03633, and closed at 0.03544 on 2025-12-30 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 18,062,680 contracts, with notional turnover of approximately $639,005.46.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the early stage of the session, confirming a shift in sentiment. A long lower shadow at 06:45 ET signaled a brief countermove to 0.03554, followed by a consolidation phase. Key support levels appeared at 0.03541 (61.8% Fib) and 0.03528 (38.2% Fib).

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 5-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period (0.0356) and 50-period (0.0357) moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum. The MACD crossed below the signal line during the selloff, while RSI dipped to 28, nearing oversold levels, suggesting a potential bounce from current levels.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded notably during the 19:15 to 21:45 ET window, with the price trading between 0.03509 and 0.03591. This moved well outside the Bollinger Band range, indicating an extreme move that may soon consolidate. The bands are now beginning to expand again, suggesting increased uncertainty ahead.

Volume and Turnover

Turnover spiked to $89,628.88 during the 19:15 ET leg of the decline, confirming bearish pressure. A large bullish volume spike occurred at 06:45 ET with 1.8 million contracts traded, signaling a short-covering rally. However, the inability to sustain above 0.03554 suggests limited conviction in the upside.

Outlook and Risk

With support at 0.03541 and RSI in oversold territory, a short-term rebound into 0.0356–0.0357 seems plausible. However, the broader trend remains bearish, and a break below 0.03528 could trigger renewed selling. Investors should remain cautious for mixed signals between volume and price action, which may signal false breakouts.