Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) – 2025-11-13

Summary
• Price drifted lower from 0.06327 to 0.06177 over 24 hours, with intraday highs at 0.0647 and lows at 0.06165.
• Volume spiked after 20:00 ET, but price failed to hold above 0.0635, indicating weak bullish momentum.
• RSI remained below 30 for most of the session, signaling oversold conditions with no clear reversal.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.06327 on 2025-11-12 and closed at 0.06177 on 2025-11-13, with a high of 0.0647 and low of 0.06165 during the 24-hour window. Total volume reached 12.8 million, and total turnover was $837,000. Price has remained in a bearish consolidation pattern for several sessions, with bearish momentum dominating into the final hours of the period.

Over the past 24 hours, GRTUSDT traded in a descending channel with key support at 0.06165 (lower end of the channel) and resistance near 0.0635–0.0640. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 17:00 ET, confirming the breakdown. A long lower shadow at 18:30 ET suggested a brief rejection of the 0.0626 level, but it failed to hold. A doji at 07:45 ET and another at 08:45 ET reflected indecision amid the downtrend. The structure suggests continued bearish pressure unless the price manages to reclaim the 0.0632–0.0635 zone.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained above the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is at 0.0645, while the 200-day MA is at 0.0655, indicating that the price remains well below major trend support levels. The 50/200 MA crossover (death cross) has been in place for over a month, signaling prolonged bearish sentiment.

RSI remained below 30 for most of the 24-hour window, entering oversold territory but failing to generate a meaningful rebound. A brief attempt to cross back above 30 occurred around 05:30 ET, but it quickly collapsed. MACD was negative and trending lower, with the signal line pulling away from the histogram. Bollinger Bands reflected moderate volatility, with price staying close to the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend. Volatility spiked between 20:00 and 21:00 ET but failed to produce a meaningful reversal.

The 20-period Bollinger Bands show a widening range as price moves toward the lower bound, suggesting increased volatility and bearish exhaustion could be in play. The 61.8% Fibonacci level of the most recent swing high (0.0647) to low (0.06165) is at 0.0627, a critical level to watch in the next 24 hours. A sustained close above that level could trigger a short-term rebound, but bearish control seems intact.

Notional turnover spiked in the 17:00–20:00 ET window, coinciding with the breakdown of 0.0632 support. However, volume during this period (over 2.4 million) did not translate into a sustained rebound, suggesting weak conviction. The price-volume divergence at 17:00 ET confirmed the breakdown, with a high volume bar forming at 18:30 ET as the price fell toward 0.0628. A similar divergence occurred at 15:45 ET as the price failed to retest 0.0635 despite increased volume.

The next 24 hours may see GRTUSDT test the 0.0616–0.0618 level, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.0627 acting as a potential short-term floor. A failure to hold 0.0627 could bring the 0.0610–0.0612 level into focus. However, given the bearish momentum and overbought RSI divergence, a rebound toward 0.0630–0.0635 is unlikely without a significant catalyst. Investors should closely monitor the 0.0627 level and volume behavior for signs of a potential reversal.

GRTUSDT appears to be in a continuation phase of a longer bearish trend, with multiple technical indicators confirming the breakdown. The formation of bearish candlestick patterns, bearish divergence in RSI and volume, and bearish momentum in the MACD all point to a higher probability of further downward movement. A short-term bounce may occur near 0.0627, but unless it is accompanied by strong volume and a convincing reversal pattern, the bias remains to the downside.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting analysis of a 3-day RSI-based trading strategy (buying on RSI < 30 and holding for 3 days) revealed a negative return of -63.4% from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13, with an annualised return of -10.7% and a maximum drawdown of 81.3%. The negative Sharpe ratio and poor risk-adjusted return suggest that the strategy underperformed in this bearish environment. The strategy’s low win rate (46%) and equal average gains versus losses (-0.75% average trade) indicate poor predictive value in a downtrend. RSI signals often triggered false entries into further declines rather than reversals. To improve the strategy, consider adding a bullish confirmation filter (e.g., RSI crossing above 30 or bullish candlestick patterns), using adaptive holding periods, and incorporating trend filters (e.g., price above 200-day MA). A stop-loss and take-profit filter could also help manage risk.