Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) on 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price opened at $0.06716 and closed near $0.06623, with a 24-hour high of $0.07007 and a low of $0.06563.
• The pair showed a bearish bias with key resistance around $0.06939 and support at $0.06606.
• Volatility expanded during the morning surge, followed by a contraction in the afternoon.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.06716 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at $0.06623 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.07007 and a low of $0.06563 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to ~12.6 million tokens, with a notional turnover of ~$846,000.

The price action featured a key bullish impulse in the early hours of 2025-11-11, where GRTUSDT surged to $0.07007, forming a small upper shadow that could indicate rejection near $0.07007. On the downside, the price tested $0.06606 twice, forming potential support. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared around 20:45 ET, but it failed to hold, suggesting weak buying pressure.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels appear at $0.06606 and $0.06563, both of which were tested multiple times without a strong rebound. Resistance is forming around $0.06939 and $0.07007, where price has shown signs of rejection. A doji appeared around 00:45 ET, indicating indecision and potential for a reversal or consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bearish crossover around 05:00 ET, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 MA lines appear aligned in a neutral to bearish configuration, with price hovering slightly above the 100-day MA.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained below the zero line for most of the session, with a bearish divergence noted in the afternoon. RSI hit overbought levels near $0.07007 but quickly retreated into neutral territory, indicating short-lived bullish momentum. The RSI also dipped into oversold territory around $0.06563, suggesting a possible bounce if buyers reenter the market.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the bullish phase early in the session, pushing price outside the upper Bollinger Band before contracting into a tighter range. Price has since oscillated within the bands, indicating a return to normal trading behavior. A break below the lower band would signal stronger bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning rally, especially around 23:00 ET, where over 1.6 million tokens traded at $0.06939. The late morning and early afternoon saw a drop in volume, suggesting waning interest. Notional turnover peaked at $50,000 during the bullish move but dropped to under $10,000 during the afternoon pullback, showing a divergence between price and volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings show the price correcting to the 61.8% level at $0.06614 after the early morning rally to $0.07007. Daily Fibonacci levels highlight $0.06939 as a 61.8% retracement level from a larger move, which appears to be a meaningful psychological barrier.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy, which focused on short-term momentum and RSI thresholds, yielded positive returns but with notable drawdowns. This aligns with the observed behavior of GRTUSDT, where short-lived bullish surges often lacked follow-through. Limiting holding periods to 5 days appears to mitigate risk, but larger declines still pose a challenge. Adjusting RSI thresholds or adding stop-loss rules could improve risk-adjusted returns. The strategy's performance suggests that GRTUSDT is volatile and sensitive to momentum shifts, making it suitable for disciplined, short-term traders with clear risk controls.