Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) — 2025-11-01

• GRTUSDT rose from 0.0622 to 0.06387 in 24h, with a 5.3% gain and volume of ~3.6M.
• Strong momentum in final hours, closing near the 15-min high of 0.06435 at 0.06387.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 07:00 ET, with Bollinger Band widening and RSI rising above 50.
• Volume surged in final 4.5 hours, particularly between 14:00 and 16:00 ET.
• No clear overhead resistance found in 15-min chart, but a 61.8% Fib level at ~0.0642 may act as initial cap.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.0622 on 2025-11-00 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.06387 the following day. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 0.06435 and a low of 0.06082. Total traded volume was approximately 3.6 million, and with average prices, the total notional turnover was around $229,000.

Over the past 24 hours, the price of GRTUSDT has displayed a clear bullish bias, especially after 07:00 ET when a sharp rally began. A key 15-minute candlestick pattern observed was a bullish engulfing pattern at 07:15 ET, which marked a turning point in the upward trend. Prices have since remained above the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, suggesting short-term momentum remains in favor of the bulls.

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in the latter half of the day, indicating rising volatility. Price has spent most of the 24-hour period within the bands, but the recent high at 0.06435 approached the upper band, a sign of potential overbought conditions. The RSI crossed above 50 early in the session and has remained above it, suggesting continued buying pressure. However, a reading near 60 indicates caution; a break above 65 could be a signal to monitor for overextension.

The 50-period moving average is currently at 0.0637, acting as a dynamic support/resistance level. The 20-period MA is slightly above it, reinforcing a positive short-term bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages are further apart, and GRTUSDT remains above them, indicating a broader uptrend. Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart show a 61.8% level at ~0.0642, which may cap further near-term gains.

The final two hours of trading showed a dramatic volume increase, particularly between 14:00 and 16:00 ET, during which volume exceeded 500,000. This coincided with a 0.0640–0.06435 price range, suggesting accumulation ahead of the day’s high. Notional turnover also spiked in this period, confirming the price action. The volume profile supports a case for short-term continuation above 0.0638, but a breakdown below the 15-minute 20 MA at 0.0634 could trigger a retest of the 0.0630 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A mechanical “Bullish Engulfing” strategy, when applied to GRTUSDT with a 1-day holding period, showed mixed results over the 2022–2025 period. While the pattern appears visually convincing and frequently emerges in the 15-minute data, the backtest revealed mildly negative average returns and a drawdown of nearly 30%. This suggests the signal lacks robustness on its own for this pair. However, the positive performance in the current session—marked by a bullish engulfing candle and a favorable volume profile—may indicate that the strategy could gain strength when combined with additional filters, such as volatility or RSI readings. Traders might explore extending the holding period or integrating moving average crossovers to improve risk-adjusted returns.