Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) on 2025-10-07

• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $0.0819 to $0.0871, closing near the lower half of its range at $0.0823.
• Price showed signs of bearish momentum with the RSI in oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Volatility expanded during the latter half of the day, with volume and turnover spiking after 15:00 ET as bears gained control.
• No strong bullish candlestick patterns emerged, but several bearish continuation and reversal patterns were confirmed.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating heightened uncertainty, with prices closing near the lower band and possibly setting up a rebound.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.0869 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0823 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.0871 and a low of $0.0819. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was approximately 12.8 million GRT, while notional turnover reached $906,510. The price moved in a choppy bearish trend after midday, with a final close near the lower end of the range.

The structure of the past 24 hours reveals a series of bearish candle formations, including several long lower wicks, bearish engulfing patterns, and a key breakdown near $0.0823 in the final candle before 12:00 ET. A strong support level appears to be forming around $0.0823 to $0.0825, which could be a key area to watch for a potential bounce. Resistance levels are now concentrated near $0.0850 and $0.0860, with the 50-period 15-minute moving average (around $0.0855) forming a short-term ceiling.

The 20-period 15-minute moving average is trending lower, crossing beneath the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA at $0.0845 has been breached and now acts as resistance, while the 200-day MA at $0.0875 sits well above current levels. The price is now below all key moving averages, indicating a deeper bearish trend may be in place.

The RSI indicator closed near the oversold threshold, at around 28, suggesting the move lower could be nearing a pause. However, the MACD is in negative territory, with the signal line crossing below the histogram, reinforcing that downward momentum remains strong. Bollinger Bands have expanded after a period of contraction, indicating rising volatility, with prices finishing near the lower band—a classic setup for a potential rebound, but one that may only be short-lived.

The Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent swing high at $0.0871 and the swing low at $0.0819 indicate that key levels to watch are at 38.2% ($0.0847) and 61.8% ($0.0831). The price is currently hovering near the 61.8% retracement level, which may act as a strong support or resistance zone in the short term.

Looking ahead, GRTUSDT may test the immediate support at $0.0823–$0.0825 before either bouncing or continuing lower. While the RSI near the oversold level may suggest a bounce is due, the overall technical picture remains bearish, and a sustained break below $0.0823 could see the pair move toward $0.0815. Investors should closely monitor volume and order flow at key support levels for signs of a reversal. As always, volatility in the crypto market remains high, and sudden directional shifts are possible.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart (death cross), with a stop-loss placed at the recent swing high. A target is set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level. Given the current bearish momentum and the recent MA crossover, this strategy could align well with the current trend. If executed at the end of the last candle on 10/07, the entry would be near $0.0823, with a stop-loss at $0.0849 and a target at $0.0815. This approach is best suited for short-term traders who are willing to take directional bias from the mean reversion and trend-following signals.