Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) – 2025-10-01

• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) rose 0.26% in 24 hours, forming a bullish reversal pattern in late ET trading.
• RSI reached overbought territory near 70, while volume surged during the breakout above 0.0807.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, showing increased volatility as price tested and held above key support at 0.0804.
• MACD crossed into positive territory with a bullish histogram, signaling rising momentum.

Price Action and Key Levels

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.0788 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.0840 by 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0862 and a low of 0.0783 over the 24-hour period. The pair experienced a total volume of 46,863,930 GRT and a notional turnover of approximately $3,884,284 (based on average price of ~$0.083). The price action showed a strong rally late in the day, with a key breakout above the 0.0807 psychological level, supported by a bullish engulfing pattern and increasing volume.

Structure and Candlestick Formations

The candlestick pattern near the close, particularly between 08:45 and 09:45 ET, showed a strong continuation of a bullish trend. A large bullish candle formed during the 08:45–09:00 ET session, followed by a strong bearish consolidation during the afternoon before a sharp move higher. A key doji appeared at 03:45 ET near 0.0803, indicating indecision before the final upward thrust. Key support levels include 0.0804 and 0.0799, with resistance at 0.0807 and 0.0812 appearing to be cleared or challenged during the session.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into a bullish alignment, supporting the recent rally. The 50-period MA sat just below the 0.0810 level, while the 20-period MA closely followed price. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs were in a bullish arrangement, with price above all three. MACD turned positive, with the histogram showing a strong upward divergence, indicating growing bullish momentum. The RSI moved into overbought territory near 70 during the late ET rally, suggesting potential for a near-term pullback.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility was elevated during the session, as evidenced by the wide expansion of the Bollinger Bands. Price spent a significant portion of the session near the lower band, but the late ET breakout moved it above the midline and closer to the upper band. The most notable expansion occurred between 08:45 and 09:45 ET, coinciding with the large bullish candle. This expansion suggests increased market participation and a shift in sentiment toward bullish positioning.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout session, particularly around 08:45 and 09:00 ET, with the largest single candle (08:45–09:00 ET) seeing a volume of 4,686,393 GRT. This volume surge coincided with a large increase in notional turnover, confirming the strength of the bullish move. Notably, volume and turnover aligned with price action in the final hours of the session, with no significant divergences. This suggests strong follow-through from buyers, with institutional or large retail players likely active.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from 0.0783 to 0.0862, key retracement levels at 0.0818 (61.8%) and 0.0812 (38.2%) were tested during the session. Price held above the 0.0812 level before breaking through, indicating that the 61.8% retracement could act as a potential target for further gains. On the daily timeframe, the 0.0803 and 0.0807 levels align with major Fibonacci levels, reinforcing their importance as psychological and technical barriers.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be designed based on the 15-minute bullish breakout pattern observed on GRTUSDT today. The approach would involve entering a long position when price closes above the 0.0807 level with a bullish engulfing pattern, confirmed by a surge in volume and MACD crossover into positive territory. A stop-loss could be placed just below 0.0804, with a target at 0.0812 or 0.0818, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the continuation of a bullish trend, with an exit signal triggered by a bearish divergence in MACD or a close below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart.