Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) on 2025-09-26

• GRT/USDT fell to a 24-hour low of $0.0791 before stabilizing, forming a bullish recovery structure post-early sell-off.
• Key support at $0.0795 held, with price rebounding toward $0.0805 and consolidating mid-range.
• Volume surged during the midday decline, while RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands indicated moderate volatility with price hovering near the lower band.
• A potential short-term bullish setup exists around the 61.8% Fib level of the recent dip.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.0819 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0798 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26, reaching a high of $0.0811 and a low of $0.0790. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 48.3 million units, with notional turnover amounting to $3.9 million. The pair displayed a bearish bias early on, followed by a retest of key support and consolidation mid-range.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern early in the session as GRT/USDT broke below key support at $0.0800, confirming a short-term breakdown. However, a bullish rejection emerged around $0.0795, marked by a long lower wick and higher lows, suggesting temporary support. A doji appeared near $0.0798, indicating indecision among traders. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from $0.0811 to $0.0790 (~$0.0798) acted as a psychological floor.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA crossed below the price during the sell-off, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA (not visible in provided data) would likely be above the current price, indicating a longer-term bearish tilt. The RSI dipped below 30 in the morning, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a strong reversal. MACD crossed into negative territory and remained bearish with a declining histogram, suggesting ongoing bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded during the early sell-off, with the lower Bollinger Band tightening before price surged to the lower band. The expansion and subsequent contraction suggest a potential reversal or consolidation phase. The pair has been trading near the middle band during the afternoon and evening hours, suggesting a period of balanced bearish and bullish pressure.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the midday decline, particularly between 17:15 and 19:00 ET, coinciding with a price drop from $0.0806 to $0.0788. However, volume thinned during the afternoon rebound, indicating weak conviction in the upside. Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, with the largest turnover spike during the sharp sell-off phase. A bearish divergence appeared between price and volume during the late afternoon consolidation, suggesting a potential reversal could be in play.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a long position on a bullish rejection at key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 61.8%) combined with RSI dipping into oversold territory. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent swing low, while a target could be set at the 50% retracement level or above the 20-EMA. Conversely, a short entry could be triggered during a bearish engulfing pattern with volume confirmation and a break below the lower Bollinger Band. This strategy would aim to capitalize on short-term mean reversion and trend-following dynamics based on the observed volatility and momentum divergence.