Market Overview: The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) on 2025-09-16

• GRT/USDT rose from 0.0917 to 0.0942 over 24 hours, with a 3.8% increase.
• Price formed bullish patterns, including an engulfing pattern near 0.0923 and a strong close above key resistance.
• Volatility increased as price moved between 0.0914 and 0.0949, with Bollinger Bands showing expansion.
• RSI approached overbought levels late in the session, signaling potential near-term resistance.
• Notional turnover spiked to $130k+ at 08:15–08:45 ET, confirming upward momentum.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.0917 on 2025-09-15 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0942 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET, achieving a 24-hour high of 0.0949 and a low of 0.0914. Total volume reached 12,866,160, and notional turnover hit $1,205,958. Price action showed a moderate bullish bias with strong volume confirmation.

Structure & Formations

Price developed a key bullish engulfing pattern at 0.0923, followed by a sharp rally that pushed the pair above key psychological levels. A 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the 0.0914 to 0.0949 swing came in at 0.0931, which was tested and held as support. A 61.8% retracement level at 0.0943 may become a near-term resistance. A small doji at 0.0932 early on 2025-09-16 hinted at short-term consolidation before the next bullish leg.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart converged around 0.092–0.0925, indicating a potential pivot zone. Over the 24-hour period, the 50-period MA acted as a dynamic support, while the 20-period MA crossed above it, confirming a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA lies beneath the 50-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover during the late morning hours, with a positive histogram confirming rising momentum. RSI climbed from 53 to 68 in the final hours of the session, nearing overbought territory, which may delay further upward movement. A pullback to RSI levels near 55–58 could provide a more favorable entry for continuation of the bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened as the price moved from the lower band at 0.0914 to the upper band at 0.0949, indicating increased volatility. The final candle at 12:00 ET closed near the upper band at 0.0942, suggesting a potential short-term top. A reversal pattern near the upper band, or a consolidation into the middle band, may be necessary before further bullish movement is confirmed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased steadily through the morning and peaked at 128,661 at 08:15 ET, coinciding with the breakout to 0.0942. Notional turnover matched this surge, confirming the move with a $130k+ spike in the same period. A divergence in volume and price during the 11:15–12:00 ET window suggests some short-term uncertainty. However, the overall volume profile supports the bullish case as long as the price remains above 0.0932.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 0.0914 to 0.0949 swing at 0.0931 acted as support and was tested twice before the final breakout. A 61.8% retracement level at 0.0943 now serves as the next critical resistance level. A breakout above this level could target the 0.0957 level on the daily chart, reinforcing the longer-term bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could look to trigger long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern or a breakout above the 50-period moving average, provided RSI remains below 70 and volume confirms the move. Stop-loss levels could be set at the nearest Fibonacci support or key psychological level, such as 0.0932. A take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.0943) aligns with both the short-term and longer-term bullish trend. This hypothesis aligns well with the observed price behavior and confirms the potential for continuation of the upward bias in the coming 24 hours.