Market Overview for The Graph (GRTUSD): Bullish Breakout Amid Rising Volatility

• The Graph (GRTUSD) rose ~2.3% in the last 24 hours, closing at $0.0904 from $0.0883.
• Volatility increased after a sustained consolidation phase, with a breakout above 0.0891.
• Volume spiked in the final hours, confirming price strength despite otherwise low activity.
• RSI climbed above 50, suggesting renewed bullish momentum.
• Price appears to be forming a bullish flag pattern within a tightening channel.

The Graph (GRTUSD) opened at $0.0883 on 2025-09-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0904 on 2025-09-03 at the same time, reaching a high of $0.0904 and a low of $0.0873. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 9,483.0, with a notional turnover of $853.87. The asset appears to be consolidating bullish momentum following an extended period of low volatility and limited price movement.

Structure & Formations

GRTUSD showed a strong breakout from a sideways consolidation phase between $0.0873 and $0.0891. The price formed a bullish flag pattern, with a consolidation rectangle followed by an upward thrust above resistance. A key support level appears at $0.0873, which held during most of the session. Resistance levels are forming at $0.0891 and $0.0904, with the former being a strong psychological barrier before the final breakout. A notable candlestick pattern appears around 00:30 ET, with a strong bullish engulfing pattern following a doji-like consolidation. This suggests a potential reversal in sentiment from bearish indecision to bullish conviction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both rising, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. The price closed above both, with the 20-period acting as dynamic support. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is likely at $0.0870–$0.0875, while the 200-period average is likely lower, indicating a longer-term bullish bias. The 50/200 crossover appears to be in the bullish zone, reinforcing the idea that the short-term trend is aligned with the longer-term bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a clear shift to positive territory in the final hours, confirming the bullish breakout. The RSI climbed above 50, reaching a high of approximately 60, indicating that momentum has picked up significantly. The RSI does not yet suggest overbought conditions, leaving room for further upward movement. The divergence between RSI and price is negligible, suggesting that the move is broadly supported by sentiment and volume.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply as the price broke out of the consolidation range, with the upper Bollinger Band expanding to approximately $0.0904. The price closed near the upper band, indicating strength and potential continuation. The band contraction earlier in the session was relatively shallow and did not suggest a high-probability reversal. The current position near the upper band suggests that the price is taking advantage of short-term bullish momentum without yet reaching extreme levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained subdued for most of the session, with a sudden spike in the final hours—particularly at 10:30 ET and 12:30 ET—confirming the breakout. Notional turnover rose in line with volume, indicating that the move was backed by real buying pressure. There were no notable divergences between price and turnover, and the overall volume profile appears to support the idea of a genuine breakout rather than a false signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent consolidation phase (from $0.0873 to $0.0891), the 61.8% retracement level aligns closely with the current price of $0.0904. This suggests that the price may be testing the next key level of resistance before potentially moving higher. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels appear to be at $0.0880 and $0.0895, respectively, with the current price already surpassing the 61.8% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on the bullish breakout pattern observed in this session. A long entry could be placed at a break of the consolidation range, with a stop loss below the 61.8% Fibonacci level or a key support at $0.0873. A target could be set at the 78.6% retracement level or beyond, depending on the strength of the move. A trailing stop could be added as the price moves higher to lock in gains. This approach aligns with the technical signals from the MACD, RSI, and volume profile, and it could be tested using historical data from similar breakout scenarios.