Market Overview for The Graph (GRTUSD)

• GRTUSD traded in a tight range early, breaking decisively lower after 09:15 ET with a large bearish candle.
• Momentum indicators signaled overbought conditions late in the previous day, with RSI failing to confirm bullish strength.
• Volatility surged during the sharp selloff, with volume spiking significantly as price dropped below key support levels.
• Price closed near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bearish move, suggesting potential short-term stability or reversal.

The Graph (GRTUSD) opened at $0.0934 on 2025-08-28 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.0934, and closed at $0.0885 by 12:00 ET on 2025-08-29. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 20,186.00 units, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $1,831.99 USD. The price action reflects a bearish shift, marked by a significant break below prior support levels and declining momentum.

Structure & Formations

The price formation on the 15-minute chart reveals a clear breakdown after 09:15 ET, characterized by a large bearish candle with a wide range. This candle, following a period of consolidation, signals a potential shift in sentiment. A key support level appears to be the 0.091–0.092 range, which was tested multiple times over the past 24 hours and eventually broken. Notable bearish divergence was observed between price and volume during the selloff, suggesting further downside could follow. A small bearish engulfing pattern confirmed the breakdown, reinforcing short-term bearish pressure.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period SMAs both trended downward throughout the 24-hour period, with the 20-period line crossing below the 50-period line in a bearish signal. The MACD turned negative after 09:15 ET, with the histogram reflecting a significant divergence between price and momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory in the final hours of the period, suggesting the selloff may be nearing a pause or temporary bottom. However, the RSI remained in a bearish phase for much of the day, indicating continued downward pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded sharply during the breakdown phase, with price moving well below the lower Bollinger Band and staying there for several hours. This contraction followed a period of consolidation within a narrow band. The selloff pushed the 20-period Bollinger Band lower, signaling increased bearish volatility. If the price continues to trade near the lower band, a mean reversion may be expected in the near term. However, as long as the trend remains intact, traders may continue to expect bearish follow-through.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown phase, particularly between 09:15 and 10:30 ET, with the largest single 15-minute volume spike occurring at 09:15 ET (1,341.0 units). Notional turnover aligned with this volume increase, confirming the strength of the breakdown. However, volume began to wane after 10:30 ET, which may suggest that the selloff is losing steam or that liquidity is drying up. This divergence could serve as a warning sign for further consolidation or a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent bearish move from $0.0934 to $0.0864 found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $0.0885, where the price has shown signs of stabilizing. This level may serve as a critical area to watch for potential bounces or further breakdown. If the price fails to hold above $0.0885, the next major support level is likely to be around $0.0850, a level that may test the resilience of the current bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum observed in the RSI, a potential backtest strategy could be structured to identify overbought conditions and assess whether a short entry would have been effective. Using GRTUSD as the single symbol, a 14-period RSI with a 70 overbought threshold could be used to trigger a short entry when RSI crosses above 70. The exit rule could be set to close the trade when RSI falls below 60, capturing a retracement while minimizing exposure to further bullish surprises. A stop-loss could be placed at a fixed distance above the entry point (e.g., 2%), and trades could be held for a maximum of 5 trading days. Using close prices for evaluation, this strategy would test whether countertrend shorting during overbought RSI conditions would have yielded profitability in the current market environment.

Looking ahead, GRTUSD appears to be in a bearish phase, with price having broken below key support and momentum indicators aligning with further downside. While the RSI has entered oversold territory, a reversal is not guaranteed, and traders should remain cautious of a potential continuation in the bearish trend. Key resistance levels above $0.0910 could offer a temporary ceiling, but a sustained break above that range would likely require a significant shift in sentiment. Risk management remains essential, as volatility remains elevated.