Market Overview for The Graph (GRTUSD) on 2025-09-04

• The Graph (GRTUSD) traded in a narrow range early before plunging sharply from 0.0905 to 0.0873 amid increased volume.
• A bearish breakout below key support at 0.0883 confirmed a short-term downtrend with high conviction.
• Weak momentum and oversold RSI suggest potential for a near-term bounce, though volatility remains low.
• Zero volume in multiple 15-minute intervals points to low participation and potential consolidation ahead.
• Fibonacci retracements show 0.0885 as a possible near-term resistance, with 0.0865 likely support if the decline continues.

The Graph (GRTUSD) opened at 0.0904 on 2025-09-03 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.0905 before plunging to 0.0873 by 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour trading volume was approximately 20,710.0, while notional turnover (price × volume) remains constrained due to the low trading range. The price action showed a clear breakdown below key support levels, confirming bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The price of GRTUSD formed a strong bearish breakdown pattern after the 0.0883 level was breached. This support level, previously a key pivot, now acts as a psychological resistance zone for potential short-term bounces. The decline saw a sharp bearish engulfing pattern from 0.0883 to 0.0873, signaling a probable continuation of the downward move. A doji formed near the session close around 0.0873, suggesting indecision and possible exhaustion, but no reversal confirmation yet.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price is below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The daily chart suggests a longer-term neutral to bearish tone, with the price still within the 50–200-period range. If the 0.0867 level is broken, the 100-period daily moving average could offer a new level of potential support or resistance depending on the volume and price action.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but no immediate reversal is evident on the price action. MACD remains bearish with the line below the signal line and both trending lower, reinforcing the bearish momentum. A failure to retrace above 0.0885 without bullish confirmation may suggest more downside ahead. Investors should watch for divergence or bullish reversal patterns to signal a potential bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described suggests a long entry when the RSI crosses below 30 followed by a bullish engulfing pattern, with a stop loss placed below the low of the engulfing pattern and a take profit at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downtrend. Given today’s data, a long entry under this strategy would have triggered at 0.0873 after the doji formation, but the lack of follow-through and the continued bearish MACD signal suggest the trade may have lacked conviction. A short trade could also be considered using the breakdown pattern and a stop above 0.0883 for confirmation. This strategy performs best in low-volatility and range-bound environments, where sharp reversals or breakouts can be capitalized on with clear entry and exit rules.