Market Overview for The Graph (GRTUSD) – 2025-09-02

• Price declined from 0.0879 to 0.0863 before a late recovery to 0.0885, forming a bullish reversal pattern at session close.
• Momentum remained subdued until late in the session, with a sharp 15-minute surge of 2.3% near 03:45 ET.
• Volatility and turnover were generally low, but a sudden spike of 6,060 GRT at 23:00 ET suggests tactical trading.
• Bollinger Band contraction early in the session preceded the breakout, indicating a potential turning point.
• Overbought RSI levels were not reached, but a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 0.0879 high was cleared in the final hours.

The Graph (GRTUSD) opened at 0.0879 on 2025-09-01 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0889 and a low of 0.0854 before closing at 0.0885 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-02. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 125,658.5 GRT, with a notional turnover of approximately USD 10,889.56.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a key bullish reversal pattern near the 0.0863 low, with a strong 15-minute bullish breakout from that level to 0.0885. The 0.0879 level acted as a strong resistance early in the session, which was briefly broken before consolidation. A bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 20:45 ET, signaling a short-term reversal, followed by a bullish engulfing pattern around 03:45 ET. A long-legged doji formed at 15:00 ET, highlighting indecision but not confirming a reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended sideways, with the price frequently testing the 50SMA as a dynamic support/resistance line. The 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA in the late hours of the session, forming a potential short-term bullish signal. On the daily chart, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA remained relatively flat, with the price holding above all three lines at close.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves a mean-reversion approach based on 15-minute Bollinger Band contractions and subsequent breakouts. It would enter long positions when price breaks the upper band following a contraction, and short positions when breaking the lower band after a contraction. Given the observed Bollinger contraction early in the session and the strong post-breakout move above the upper band, this strategy would have entered a long position with a clear target at the 0.0885 level, which was indeed reached.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained largely neutral throughout the session, with a slight bullish crossover near the 03:45 ET recovery. The histogram showed expansion during the late session rally, suggesting increasing momentum. The RSI remained in mid-range territory for most of the session, not reaching overbought or oversold levels. However, a 40–50 range in RSI during the 20:00–23:00 ET period suggested a consolidation phase, followed by a break above 50 with the late rally.

Bollinger Bands

A period of tight consolidation occurred between 16:00 and 22:00 ET, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing significantly. Price then broke above the upper band in a strong bullish move from 0.0863 to 0.0885. This expansion signaled increased volatility and a potential reversal from the previous bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained low for most of the session, with significant spikes at 22:15 ET (6,178 GRT) and 03:45 ET (5,060 GRT), confirming the key price movements. Notional turnover spiked with these volume surges, aligning with the price breakouts. However, a divergence appeared at 23:00 ET when volume spiked but price declined slightly, suggesting some profit-taking or short-term bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.0863 to 0.0885 swing, the 61.8% retracement level was reached at 0.0879, which had acted as resistance earlier in the day. The 38.2% level was at 0.0868, which was also a consolidation zone for several hours. This retracement alignment supports the view that 0.0885 is a strong immediate resistance and potential short-term ceiling for the next 24 hours.

Looking ahead, GRTUSD appears to be forming a short-term bullish setup with potential for a test of 0.0889–0.0890 if momentum remains intact. However, a pullback to the 0.0875–0.0879 range could re-test key support levels. Investors should remain cautious of potential bearish divergence if volume fails to confirm further advances.