Market Overview for The Graph (GRTUSD) on 2025-09-01

• The Graph (GRTUSD) experienced consolidation and a modest decline in early morning hours, with a bearish reversal forming on the 15-minute chart.
• Volatility remained subdued for most of the day, but a sharp dip in the overnight session triggered a significant volume spike.
• Momentum indicators suggest weakening bullish momentum with RSI approaching oversold territory, indicating potential for a short-term bounce.

The Graph (GRTUSD) opened at $0.0897 on 2025-09-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0887 by the same time the following day. The 24-hour high and low were both observed at $0.0897, with a total trading volume of 18,267.0 and a notional turnover of approximately $1,638.36. The price action revealed a bearish overnight drift, capped by a large-volume candle in the early hours, followed by consolidation and a modest rebound in the morning.

Structure & Formations

GRTUSD displayed a key bearish reversal pattern in the early hours, with a large-volume candle opening at $0.089 and closing at $0.0887. This candlestick formed a bearish trendline from a minor high in the previous days. The price then settled in a tight range, lacking strong directional momentum. A notable support level formed around $0.0887, where the price consolidated for several hours. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible in the 04:45–05:00 ET session, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was slightly above the 50-period MA, indicating a mildly bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100 and 200-period MAs, forming a bearish triple crossover. The price has been trading below all three MAs, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The crossover of the 50-period MA below the 100 and 200-period MAs suggests a potential for further downside unless the price reclaims this key support area.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative throughout the 24-hour period, with the histogram contracting slightly in the morning, indicating waning bearish momentum. The RSI approached the 30-level during the overnight decline, reaching as low as 29, suggesting the asset was nearing oversold territory. However, the price failed to rebound significantly from this level, signaling potential exhaustion in the short-term bears.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained compressed throughout most of the session, with the price trading tightly within the Bollinger Bands. A notable contraction was observed during the overnight hours, followed by a mild expansion in the early morning. The price closed near the lower band, indicating bearish pressure. A rebound from the lower band in the morning hinted at a potential short-term bottom, but a break below the lower band would signal a continuation of the downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the overnight bearish reversal, with a large-volume candle at 00:00 ET printing a sharp drop from $0.0893 to $0.0887. This volume spike confirmed the bearish breakdown. However, subsequent candles showed little follow-through in volume, suggesting the move may be running out of steam. Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, with a spike during the large-volume candle and a return to subdued levels afterward.

Fibonacci Retracements

A minor bearish retracement from a recent high at $0.0897 saw the price fall to the 61.8% level at $0.0887, where it found temporary support. This suggests that the 61.8% retracement level acted as a key psychological and technical support. If the price were to break below this level, the next target would be the 78.6% retracement at $0.0872. On the 15-minute chart, a retracement from the overnight high found support at the 50% level, indicating potential for a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed bearish reversal and volume confirmation during the early morning hours, a viable backtest hypothesis would involve a short entry at or near the close of the large-volume bearish candle at $0.0887, with a stop-loss placed slightly above the high of the candle at $0.0893. A target could be set at the 61.8% retracement level of $0.0872, with a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:0.66. This setup would aim to capture a continuation of the bearish trend while managing risk with tight stops, making it suitable for a medium-term strategy during periods of high volatility and confirmed bearish momentum.