Market Overview for The Graph (GRTUSD) - 2025-08-31

• The Graph (GRTUSD) tested a breakout above 0.0905, followed by consolidation and a failed follow-through.
• Price action showed a bullish engulfing pattern at 1715 ET with immediate reversal.
• Volatility expanded during the breakout but faded afterward, indicating weak conviction.
• RSI remained neutral, suggesting no strong momentum bias, while MACD showed flat readings.
• Turnover was minimal for most of the session, with only a few spikes, especially near 0130 ET and 1030 ET.

The Graph (GRTUSD) opened at $0.0893 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $0.0901 at 12:00 ET, with a daily high of $0.0918 and a low of $0.0889 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 48,845.0, and notional turnover reached $4,418.71. Price action showed limited conviction, as a bullish breakout failed to hold, suggesting potential bearish resistance.

Structure & Formations

The key resistance cluster was identified at 0.0905–0.0918, which saw a brief breakout and subsequent rejection. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 1715 ET, as the candle opened at 0.0893 and closed at 0.0905, but it was followed by a bearish reversal. Price consolidated above 0.0905 for over 7 hours, suggesting temporary strength but failing to confirm a breakout. A bearish reversal pattern emerged at 2330 ET and again at 1030 ET, signaling possible exhaustion in the upside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was at approximately 0.0897, while the 50-period MA hovered near 0.0895. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was at 0.0893, the 100-period MA at 0.0891, and the 200-period MA at 0.0888. The price hovered near the 20-period MA for much of the day, but it failed to cross above the 50-period line, indicating a weak uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory for the session, with a small positive signal at the 1715 ET breakout. The RSI hovered between 50 and 55 for most of the day, indicating neutral momentum. A slight bearish divergence appeared in the final 3 hours of trading as price moved higher but RSI failed to confirm with an upward turn. These readings suggest the market is in a consolidation phase with no clear direction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the price broke above 0.0905, with the upper band reaching 0.0918. Price remained near the upper band between 1715 and 0345 ET but gradually drifted back to the midline by the end of the session. The lower band hovered around 0.0885, and price touched it only briefly at 2330 ET, suggesting limited downside pressure. The overall width of the bands indicated moderate volatility, with no strong contractions or expansions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was nearly flat for most of the session, with significant spikes at 1715 ET, 0130 ET, and 1030 ET. The 1715 ET spike coincided with a bullish engulfing pattern and a breakout, but the price failed to hold the level. Similarly, a large volume spike at 0130 ET supported a short-lived bullish move to 0.091. Turnover also showed a strong increase at these times, confirming the importance of these price levels but indicating no strong follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent swing high at 0.0918 and swing low at 0.0889 formed a Fibonacci structure. The 38.2% retracement level was at 0.0905, which became a key resistance level. The 61.8% level at 0.0896 coincided with the consolidation range. The price tested both levels but failed to break either decisively, suggesting these levels are critical for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the appearance of a bullish engulfing pattern at 1715 ET, a potential strategy could involve entering long at the close of that candle and exiting 15 minutes later. However, the price failed to sustain the move, closing lower than the open of the next candle, suggesting a weak signal. If this pattern is used for intraday trading, volume confirmation and a follow-through candle are essential for increasing the signal's reliability. With current data limitations, the best approximation would be to treat this as a one-day hold, using the next day’s close to evaluate performance.