Market Overview: GPSUSDT – 24-Hour Price Action and Technical Drivers

• GPSUSDT declined sharply in overnight trading, dropping from ~0.0104 to 0.00949 by early morning ET, a ~9.6% correction.
• A bearish 15-minute engulfing pattern formed around 02:45 ET, confirming short-term bearish momentum.
• RSI hit oversold territory (<30) by 07:00 ET but failed to generate a bullish reversal, signaling weak buying pressure. • Bollinger Bands showed a significant contraction in the pre-dawn hours before a sharp expansion during the selloff. • Volume spiked during the early morning selloff but has remained muted in the afternoon, indicating a potential pause in selling pressure.

Market Update

GoPlus Security/Tether (GPSUSDT) opened at 0.01014 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00949 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.01068 and a low of 0.00919 during the 24-hour window. Total trading volume amounted to approximately 78.8 million, with a notional turnover of $7.64 million.

The price action appears to have been driven by a sharp mid-night selloff beginning around 02:45 ET, coinciding with a key bearish engulfing pattern. This was followed by a period of consolidation in the morning and a gradual retest of intraday support levels in the afternoon. The price has since remained in a narrow range, suggesting a possible exhaustion of immediate bearish momentum.

Structural Analysis and Key Levels

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward during the selloff, with the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 100DMA have both declined, with the 50DMA currently at ~0.0105, acting as a strong resistance level. The 200DMA sits at ~0.011, a significant psychological and structural barrier.

Notable candlestick patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern at 02:45 ET and a potential hammer forming in the afternoon at ~0.00941, suggesting a possible short-term bottoming attempt. Support levels to monitor include 0.00941 (hammer low), 0.00935, and 0.00932, while key resistance lies at 0.0095, 0.00955, and the 50DMA.

Volatility and Momentum Indicators

The MACD (12,26,9) crossed below the signal line during the early morning sell-off, confirming bearish momentum. The MACD histogram has remained negative since, with the only slight recovery occurring in the afternoon. The RSI has hovered in oversold territory (<30) since 07:00 ET, but has yet to generate a meaningful bullish reversal, suggesting a lack of conviction in buyers.
Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the early morning selloff, from a 1.8% width to a 9.1% width. Price has since been consolidating within the bands, sitting at ~1.3% of the lower band, indicating moderate volatility. A break above the 20SMA (~0.00955) could signal a short-covering rally but is unlikely without a significant shift in sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.01068 to 0.00919, the 38.2% level is at ~0.00986 and the 61.8% at ~0.00951. The current price is near the 61.8% level, suggesting potential support. If the price breaks below this level, the next major retracement target is 0.00932, a psychological and technical support level.

On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels of the broader move from ~0.011 to ~0.00919 align with the 50DMA and the 0.0095 level, reinforcing the importance of these areas in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the prolonged RSI oversold condition and the hammer formation at ~0.00941, a potential RSI-based backtest strategy could focus on entry signals at RSI < 30 with a target of RSI > 50 for exit. A fixed holding period of 10 trading hours (or ~50 candles at 15-minute intervals) would help manage risk while capturing potential short-term bounces.

Price-based entry (close price) is recommended, and risk controls such as a 2% stop-loss or a 5% take-profit limit could be applied to ensure discipline. Given the recent volatility and volume patterns, a backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14 using GPSUSDT or similar tokens would provide valuable insight into the viability of this approach in both bullish and bearish market conditions.

Outlook and Risks

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours will likely test the 0.00941 support and the 0.00955 resistance levels. A break below 0.00941 could accelerate the selloff, but a retest and hold above 0.00941 might trigger a short-term rebound.

Investors should remain cautious due to the weak RSI and lack of buying pressure. A failure to reclaim 0.0095 would reinforce a bearish bias, while a strong close above 0.00955 could signal a reversal in momentum.