Market Overview for Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT)

• Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) rallied 2.65% in 24h, closing near the session high of $136.84 amid rising volatility.
• Momentum indicators show bullish divergence with RSI near overbought levels and MACD above zero with positive divergence.
• Price remains above key 20-period MA on 15-min chart, with Bollinger Bands widening, indicating rising volatility.
• Volume and turnover increased progressively, with heavy buying pressure in the final 3 hours before 12:00 ET.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest a potential pullback toward 135.50–135.75 after the recent rally.

Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) opened at $132.31 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET and closed at $136.68 by 2025-09-27 12:00 ET, with a high of $136.92 and low of $131.91. The 24-hour volume was 1,090.62, and the notional turnover reached $149,200. The pair has shown strong price momentum over the last 24 hours, particularly after 18:00 ET on 2025-09-26.

Over the last 24 hours, the 15-minute chart has shown a consistent rise in price, supported by a strong 20-period moving average of approximately $135.70 and a 50-period MA at $135.50. The price remains above both and is approaching the upper band of the expanding Bollinger Bands, a sign of increasing volatility. Notably, the pair formed several bullish patterns, including a hammer at the low of $131.91 and a bullish engulfing pattern on the 16:30 candle.

The MACD crossed above the signal line mid-day and remains in positive territory, suggesting bullish momentum. RSI reached 73 near the close, nearing overbought territory, while the price continues to hold above the 50-period MA. This setup suggests that the pair is likely to continue rising or consolidate near current levels in the short term. However, a close below $135.75 could trigger a pullback toward $135.17, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

The 20-period MA (15-min) has been a strong support for much of the session, while the 50-period MA acts as a dynamic floor. Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the $131.91 low to the $136.92 high show the $135.75–$135.50 range as key support. Given the current positioning within the Bollinger Bands and the divergence between price and RSI, a potential pullback followed by a resumption of the bullish trend is likely.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtesting strategy focuses on a breakout-based approach, entering long on a close above the upper Bollinger Band and exiting on a close below the 20-period MA. Given the 15-minute timeframe and the recent volatility, this strategy would have captured the full upmove from the $132.31 open to the $136.92 high. The use of RSI as a confirmatory signal could help avoid false breakouts, particularly when RSI remains above 60. A trailing stop-loss set at 1.5% could have secured profits during the late afternoon rally. This approach would need to be tested over multiple cycles to determine its robustness under varied volatility conditions.