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• strengthened with RSI above 60, indicating bullish bias.
• Volatility expanded as price traded above upper Bollinger Band.
• Volume surged in late hours, confirming recent price breakout.
• Key support at 114.30 appears intact, with resistance forming near 119.00.
Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) opened at $114.96 on 2025-11-06 12:00 ET, hit a high of $119.24, a low of $112.72, and closed at $119.02 on 2025-11-07 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 1,843.95 GNO, with a notional turnover of $219,319. Price and volume confirmed a breakout above recent resistance levels.
Structure and price action show a bullish trend, with price forming a series of higher highs and higher lows over the past 24 hours. A notable formation includes a bullish engulfing pattern near the open, followed by a bullish continuation trend. A key support level is identified at $114.30, where the price found multiple bounces and retests. Resistance appears at $119.00 and $119.24, both levels showing consolidation and order block behavior.
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bullish crossover, with the 50-period line rising steeply. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) are also converging, with the 50-period above the 100-period line. The 50-day MA at $116.25 appears to act as dynamic support.
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The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the morning session, confirming bullish momentum. RSI surged above 60, suggesting overbought conditions but not yet reaching extremes. Bollinger Bands showed a widening, indicating increasing volatility. Price spent most of the day outside the upper band, reinforcing the strength of the breakout.
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Backtest Hypothesis
Applying a backtesting strategy similar to the “MACD Golden Cross – 5-Day Holding” model tested on SPY could offer insights for GNOUSDT. Over the 2022–2025 period, a similar MACD-driven strategy on equities yielded a 17% cumulative return with a Sharpe ratio of 0.64. While not spectacular, it suggests the signal could be refined with stop-losses and tighter holding periods for crypto. Given the higher volatility in crypto, a 3–4-day holding period and a trailing stop at 3% may improve risk-adjusted returns. Testing this on GNOUSDT could validate the robustness of the bullish signal.
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