Market Overview for Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) traded lower in a downtrend, closing near a 24-hour low of $132.82 with moderate volume.
• Momentum weakened as RSI approached oversold territory and MACD showed bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded as price moved beyond lower Bollinger Bands, signaling potential continuation.
• Volume spiked during the overnight Asian session, confirming bearish pressure.
• Fibonacci retracements highlighted 61.8% levels near $133.0–133.5 as potential near-term support.

The Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) pair opened at $138.32 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and traded within a broad descending range to close at $132.82 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended from a high of $138.35 to a low of $131.74, with total volume of 958.97 units and a notional turnover of $128,889.31. The price action suggests bearish control, with a lack of conviction in reversal attempts.

Structure over the past 24 hours shows several bearish formations. A long lower shadow appeared around $132.8–133.0 during the afternoon (ET), suggesting rejection at key support. A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart both crossed below the price, confirming a short-term bearish bias. Daily MA 50/100/200 lines also showed a negative slope. The 15-minute chart saw a 20-period MA at $133.20 and 50-period MA at $134.10, with price consistently below both, indicating bearish momentum could persist.

The MACD histogram turned negative after 16:00 ET, with a bearish crossover on the daily chart. The RSI fell below 30 around 08:00 ET, reaching as low as 28.2, suggesting near-oversold conditions. However, no strong bullish reversal followed, pointing to lack of buying interest. Bollinger Bands widened significantly, with price closing near the lower band, indicating heightened volatility. A contraction in the bands was observed during the Asian session, followed by a breakout to the downside.

Volume spiked sharply between 00:00 and 05:00 ET, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover surged as price fell from $136.6 to $133.7, with a total of 426.6 units traded during that period. No clear divergence between price and volume was observed, supporting the strength of the bearish move. Fibonacci retracements applied to the 24-hour swing from $138.35 to $131.74 showed the 61.8% level at $133.05 as a potential short-term support. A breach below that could trigger a test of the 78.6% level near $131.90.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential short-term strategy could involve entering a short position at the close of the first bearish candle breaking the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop just above the 20-period MA. A target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the recent bearish divergence in MACD and RSI, and the confirmed break of key moving averages, this strategy may offer a favorable risk-to-reward ratio in the near term. However, confirmation of a bullish reversal at key support levels would require a strong volume candle above the 50-period MA before entering a long.