Market Overview for Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) on 2025-09-23

• Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) formed a bullish reversal pattern around $137.58 after a sharp 2.7% decline.
• RSI bottomed at 28, indicating oversold conditions, with price testing the 137.74–138.42 range.
• Volatility spiked in the 20:00–22:00 ET window, with volume surging to 474,153 units during a pullback.
• Price found support at 136.6 and bounced with strong volume, but bearish pressure reemerged after 02:00 ET.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed ahead of a breakout attempt, confirming a potential short-term trend reversal.

Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) opened at $138.25 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and traded between $135.55 and $139.55 over the next 24 hours, closing at $138.12 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. Total volume was 5,187,415 units, with notional turnover reaching $723.1 million. The pair experienced a sharp selloff from $138.44 to $136.6 in under 30 minutes, followed by a partial recovery and consolidation in a tight range before a late bullish breakout attempt.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a key support zone between $137.57 and $137.74, where three consecutive 15-minute candles formed a bullish reversal pattern (a small bullish engulfing and a pinbar), confirming short-term oversold conditions. A bearish key resistance level was identified at $138.44, where the pair repeatedly failed to hold above for extended periods. A notable 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $138.00 acted as both a support and a resistance during consolidation. The price action suggests a possible exhaustion in bearish momentum after the 02:00 ET bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA (Simple Moving Average) dipped below the 50-period SMA in the early part of the session, signaling a bearish bias, but crossed back above by 06:00 ET, hinting at a possible reversal. The 50-period SMA on the daily chart remains above the 100 and 200-period SMAs, suggesting medium-term bullish intent. The pair is currently trading above the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, indicating short-term bullish momentum, but below the 50-period SMA, showing a mixed bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive after 06:00 ET, with the histogram showing a gradual bullish divergence. The RSI hit a low of 28 at 02:00 ET and rose to 52 by 06:00 ET, indicating a strong short-term recovery from oversold territory. The RSI remains within a healthy range, with no signs of overbought conditions. These momentum indicators suggest a potential bullish continuation in the near term if the price holds above $137.74.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility showed a contraction between 02:00 and 04:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion during the selloff to $136.6. Price closed just inside the upper Bollinger Band after a 12-hour consolidation, suggesting a breakout attempt. The narrowing of the bands earlier in the session hinted at a potential reversal, which was confirmed by the late-day bullish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 474,153 units at 20:00 ET during the pullback to $136.6, confirming bearish strength. However, after 02:00 ET, volume declined despite the price recovery, indicating waning bearish conviction. Notional turnover increased in line with volume, with a peak at $7.2 million at 20:00 ET. The divergence between volume and price in the latter half of the session suggests a potential shift in control.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels were observed between the recent high of $139.55 and the low of $136.6. The 50% level at $138.00 acted as a strong support and resistance, with 61.8% at $137.83 and 38.2% at $138.29. Price tested the 61.8% level twice and bounced off it, indicating possible continuation of the bullish trend if it holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed price action and indicator behavior, a potential backtest strategy could be designed around a “Bullish Breakout with RSI Confirmation” signal. A long entry could be triggered when price closes above the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, with RSI above 40 and a bullish engulfing pattern forming on the hourly timeframe. A stop-loss is placed just below the most recent swing low, with a take-profit targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This strategy could be tested over the past 30 days to evaluate its success rate and risk-adjusted returns.