Market Overview for GMX/USDC on 2025-09-23

• GMX/USDC traded higher overnight, forming a bullish breakout above key resistance at 14.80.
• Momentum accelerated during late ET hours, with volume and turnover surging past $100 million.
• Price action shows a strong 15-minute bullish reversal after a consolidation phase.
• RSI overbought levels suggest caution, but MACD remains positive.
• Volatility remains elevated, with price hovering near the upper Bollinger Band.

GMX/USDC opened at 14.37 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at 16.40 at the same time on 2025-09-23. The pair reached a high of 16.40 and a low of 14.24 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 21,451.62 GMX, and notional turnover was approximately $304.2 million, indicating strong liquidity and participation. The price action reflects a clear upward bias, particularly in the final six hours of the period.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a significant bullish reversal pattern starting at 02:45 ET, where a long lower shadow and a positive close signaled a rejection of bearish pressure. A strong bullish engulfing pattern formed between 09:30 and 09:45 ET, reinforcing the upward momentum. The key resistance level at 14.80 was decisively broken through by 04:45 ET, followed by a strong continuation pattern through the remainder of the day. The price action appears to have found a new equilibrium above the 15.00 level, with a potential consolidation zone forming above 15.80.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both crossed above by 04:45 ET and have remained bullish since. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is currently at 14.62, and the 100- and 200-period lines are at 14.50 and 14.45 respectively. GMX/USDC has shown a clear departure from the 50-day moving average, suggesting a shift in trend from bearish to bullish. The crossover of the 20- and 50-period lines on the 15-minute chart further confirms the positive bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive at 04:00 ET and has remained above the signal line since, with the histogram showing a strong divergence between price and momentum. RSI surged above 70 during the late ET hours, indicating overbought conditions, yet the price continued higher, suggesting strong conviction among buyers. The RSI has since pulled back slightly but remains above 60, maintaining an overbought bias. MACD appears to be gaining strength, with both the line and histogram showing increasing positive momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly from 09:30 ET onward as the price surged above the upper Bollinger Band and remained there for most of the period. The contraction prior to the breakout, seen between 06:00 and 08:30 ET, indicated a period of consolidation that preceded the upward move. The current price of 16.40 sits well above the upper band, suggesting extended bullish momentum. A retest of the upper band may offer another opportunity for continuation or a short-term correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically after 09:30 ET, with the largest 15-minute bar (amounting to 1918 GMX) occurring at 13:45 ET. Turnover also surged, peaking at $26.1 million in a single candle during this time. The strong alignment of price and volume suggests genuine buying pressure rather than a short-lived rally. Notably, the late ET hours saw a divergence in volume, with lower volume accompanying higher prices, signaling potential exhaustion in the immediate term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 14.24 to 16.40, the 38.2% level sits at 15.56 and the 61.8% level at 15.96. The price currently resides near the 61.8% level and may face a test of the 78.6% level at 16.17 before encountering potential resistance. On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement of the prior 14.37 to 14.82 move is at 14.65, which was clearly oversold and then broken through in late ET hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would involve using a 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern as an entry signal, combined with a 50-period moving average crossover as a filter. The strategy would look to enter long positions only when both conditions align, with a stop-loss placed below the low of the engulfing candle and a take-profit target set at the 1.272 Fibonacci extension of the move. This approach could be evaluated over a 12-month backtest period to assess its viability in various market conditions.