Market Overview for Gala/Tether (GALAUSDT) - 2025-10-04

• Gala/Tether (GALAUSDT) traded in a tight range today, forming key support at 0.01570–0.01580 and resistance at 0.01615–0.01625.
• Momentum shifted bearishly after 17:15 ET, with a 2.3% drop in price before stabilizing near 0.01600.
• Volatility expanded slightly in the final hours, with a 0.0004 range in the last 3 hours of trading.
• Notional turnover peaked at 73,357,870 at 17:15 ET, coinciding with a large bearish candle and a sharp decline.
• RSI entered oversold territory briefly after 03:30 ET, but failed to spark a strong rebound.

Price Action and Context

Gala/Tether (GALAUSDT) opened at 0.01612 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.01646 before settling at 0.01580 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The pair traded within a 0.00076 range over 24 hours, with the closing price near the lower end of the range. Total volume was 733,578,700 tokens, while notional turnover reached 11,797,058 USD. A bearish breakout below 0.01610 on October 3 appears to have triggered selling pressure into the early hours of October 4.

Structure & Key Levels

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish trend with key support levels forming at 0.01570–0.01580 and resistance at 0.01615–0.01625. A long-bodied bearish candle at 17:15 ET (closing at 0.01615) marked a 2.3% drop and confirmed a short-term breakdown. A doji at 03:30 ET near 0.01601 suggested indecision, followed by a consolidation phase. The 0.01600–0.01610 range appears to be the immediate battleground for control.

Momentum and Indicators

MACD turned bearish in the late afternoon of October 3, with a negative crossover triggering further selling. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 after 03:30 ET, but failed to reverse the trend, indicating weak bearish conviction. Bollinger Bands widened slightly in the final 6 hours of the session, with price bouncing off the lower band at 0.01580 before stabilizing. The RSI and MACD diverged somewhat from the price action in the final hours, suggesting potential for a retracement or a reversal, though the broader trend remains bearish.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 17:15 ET, coinciding with the large bearish candle and the breakdown below 0.01625. The notional turnover at that time hit 11.8 million USD, the highest of the 24-hour period. Despite this, volume remained relatively low in the following 15-minute intervals, suggesting a lack of follow-through. A divergence between price and turnover after 03:30 ET suggests a potential short-term bottom may be forming.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 0.01646 (high at 20:30 ET October 3) to 0.01615 (low at 17:15 ET), the 38.2% retracement level sits at 0.01632 and the 61.8% at 0.01620. Price stalled around these levels multiple times during the evening and into the early morning, suggesting they are currently acting as overhead resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the recent high is at 0.01647 and the 38.2% at 0.01625, both of which have been tested and rejected multiple times.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a mean-reversion approach triggered by RSI entering oversold territory (<30) and a close above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. This would be paired with a volume filter to ensure a minimum 50% increase in trading activity. Given today’s action, this strategy would have triggered a long signal near 0.01601, with a stop loss below 0.01585 and a target near 0.01630. The low divergence between volume and price in the final hours suggests the strategy could perform moderately well in the next 24 hours, assuming the 0.01600–0.01610 range holds.