Market Overview: FUNToken/Tether (FUNUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• FUNToken/Tether opened at $0.009448 and closed at $0.009307, with a 24-hour low of $0.009247 and high of $0.009570.
• Price action showed significant consolidation after an early morning rally, with bearish divergence in RSI and volume.
• Volatility expanded in the first half of the session, then contracted sharply in the afternoon as selling pressure increased.
• Notional turnover spiked during the morning rally but sharply declined after 15:00 ET as sentiment turned negative.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the 24-hour high, suggesting a potential reversal of momentum.

Opening Narrative

FUNToken/Tether (FUNUSDT) opened at $0.009448 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.009307 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The pair reached a high of $0.009570 and a low of $0.009247 during the session. Total volume amounted to 51,010,243.0, while notional turnover (amount) reached 119,868.0. The price action reflected a sharp reversal in sentiment from bullish to bearish, with notable bearish momentum in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Formations

Price action on FUNUSDT displayed a distinct bearish bias after a short-lived morning rally. A key resistance level emerged at $0.009500, where price stalled and reversed in a bearish engulfing pattern. A key support was seen at $0.009350, which held briefly but was later broken, suggesting further downward potential. A doji formed near $0.009420, signaling indecision, followed by a series of bearish bodies that confirmed a shift in market sentiment.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart initially crossed above price, supporting the morning rally, but quickly moved below as bearish momentum took over. The 50-period MA acted as a key resistance turning into a dynamic ceiling. Longer-term averages (100/200) remained above current price levels, suggesting that the trend may still be bearish on a broader time frame.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the early afternoon, signaling weakening bullish momentum, with a bearish crossover confirmed by the signal line. RSI reached a peak of 58 during the morning rally, suggesting overbought conditions, and then dropped sharply into oversold territory by late afternoon, reaching 39. This divergence indicated a lack of conviction in the rally, with bears firmly in control of the session.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the first hours of the session, with price reaching the upper band multiple times before collapsing. The bands then contracted sharply after 15:00 ET, signaling a tightening of price ranges and a potential breakout or breakdown. At the close, price sat near the lower band, reinforcing a bearish bias for the immediate future.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning rally, especially between 09:00 and 11:00 ET, with a peak in the 15-minute candle at 14,405,344.0. Notional turnover (amount) followed a similar trend, peaking at 119,868.0. However, from 15:00 ET onward, both volume and turnover declined significantly, highlighting a lack of follow-through buying. This divergence between volume and price suggests weakening bullish conviction and potential exhaustion in the short term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the morning rally indicated that key levels at 0.00946 (38.2%) and 0.00942 (61.8%) were tested and broken in the afternoon. These levels acted as dynamic resistance-turned-support, with 0.00942 holding briefly before the price collapsed further. Looking at broader daily swings, the 0.618 level at ~$0.009335 may now serve as a potential floor in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current price structure and the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern at the 24-hour high, a backtest strategy could be constructed to test the effectiveness of a short entry at the close of that candle, with a stop just above the high of the engulfing pattern and a target aligned with the next Fibonacci support level at $0.009420. If this level holds and price breaks below it, a second target could be set at $0.009300. This setup could be evaluated over multiple similar sessions to determine the probability of success and expected risk-reward ratios for such a bearish strategy.