Market Overview for FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT)

• FTT/USDT fell from 0.9309 to 0.9117 over 24 hours, with late rebound to 0.9369.
• RSI and MACD indicated bearish momentum in the early session before a reversal.
• Volatility surged during the late afternoon and early evening ET.
• Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during key breakouts.
• Volume surged over 116k during the final hour, indicating a potential reversal attempt.

The FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT) pair opened at 0.9198 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and closed at 0.9369 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.9493 and a low of 0.9003 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume reached 1,145,863.85, while notional turnover hit $1,066,333.15, reflecting strong activity, especially in the late afternoon and evening.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a clear bearish breakdown during the early session, forming a bearish engulfing pattern below the 0.92 support level. This was followed by a late-day recovery, forming a bullish harami and a bullish engulfing pattern above 0.9300. A key support level appears to be forming around 0.9004–0.9050, with 0.9200–0.9250 acting as a pivot and potential reversal zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average dipped below the 50-period line, signaling a bearish crossover earlier in the session, but the 50-period line remained above the 20-period line by session end. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be forming a bullish divergence with price at 0.9300, while the 200-period MA remains bearish at ~0.9150, suggesting intermediate-term bearish pressure remains.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the early afternoon, with the line dipping below the signal line and forming a bearish histogram. RSI dropped below 30 by 19:30 ET, indicating oversold conditions, before bouncing back above 40 by 20:45 ET. This suggests a short-term reversal may be in play, though RSI remains below 50, indicating bearish momentum is still dominant in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly between 0.9050 and 0.9150 during midday, signaling consolidation. This was followed by a sharp expansion in volatility as price broke above the upper band in the late afternoon. Price currently sits just below the upper band again, suggesting continued bullish momentum could be in play.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 03:00–06:00 ET period and again from 13:00–16:00 ET, coinciding with price breakouts and consolidations. Notional turnover surged during the final 15-minute candle, reaching $93,690.00, confirming the strong price action. A divergence between price and volume is visible during the 06:00–09:00 ET period, suggesting weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent swing from 0.9493 to 0.9003 has seen price retrace to the 61.8% level (~0.9330), suggesting this level could act as a key resistance. On the intraday 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retrace (~0.9280) appears to be holding as a key support/resistance pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price behavior and technical indicators, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position on a close above the 0.9280 Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss placed just below 0.9160. A take-profit target could be set at 0.9400, aligning with the 61.8% retracement of the major swing. This approach would aim to capitalize on the bearish exhaustion and the potential for a short-term bullish reversal, supported by the RSI overbought divergence and volume confirmation in the afternoon. This strategy could be further refined by incorporating MACD crossover signals for timing.