Market Overview: FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of 1.2179 before retreating to close near 0.9337, reflecting high volatility.
• A massive volume spike of 6.4M near 14:45 ET coincided with the sharp upward move and subsequent sharp correction.
• RSI reached overbought levels early, followed by a rapid bearish reversal, signaling potential exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the peak move, indicating increased uncertainty in price direction.
• A large engulfing candle confirmed a bearish reversal from resistance levels near 1.1086.

Opening and Closing Summary

FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT) opened at 0.7959 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and surged as high as 1.2179 before closing at 0.9337 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour period was approximately 13.5M, while notional turnover reached over 12.2M, driven primarily by a massive volume spike during the volatile midday session.

Structure & Formations

The price structure reveals a strong bullish impulse during the day, reaching a sharp peak at 1.2179 before a rapid bearish reversal into a large bearish engulfing pattern. The move from 0.8124 to 1.2179 was followed by a steep correction into support zones between 0.95–0.97. Key support levels now include 0.9337, 0.9187, and potentially 0.90. A notable bearish harami pattern appeared shortly after the peak, reinforcing the reversal signal. A key resistance cluster between 0.97–1.03 now appears critical to watch for near-term bounce scenarios.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed above during the bullish impulse, suggesting bullish momentum. However, both lines now sit well above the current price of 0.9337, pointing to a bearish divergence. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs are likely in a bearish alignment, indicating that the broader trend remains bearish despite the short-term volatility.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a strong positive divergence during the upward move, but quickly reversed to a bearish crossover as price corrected sharply. RSI entered overbought territory during the peak, reaching nearly 85 before falling into oversold territory by the close. This rapid RSI rotation often signals exhaustion and a potential continuation of the downward move unless buyers re-enter below 0.90.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically following the sharp move to 1.2179, with the upper band widening to accommodate the price surge. The correction brought price back within the lower half of the bands, with the current close near the lower boundary. This suggests that the market is consolidating after the large move, with potential for another test of support at 0.9187 or 0.90.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover surged during the sharp upward move, particularly with the massive 6.4M volume spike at 14:45 ET, where price peaked. This was followed by a sharp volume drop during the correction, indicating that the move was largely one-sided and driven by speculative short-term buyers. The subsequent lower volume during the pullback suggests a lack of follow-through buying, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute move from 0.8124 to 1.2179, price retested the 61.8% retracement level at around 0.97 and then broke down further. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of a larger bearish move lies near 0.90–0.92. If the price continues lower, these levels will be key for potential bounce scenarios or further consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price action aligns closely with the outlined backtesting strategy: a large bullish engulfing pattern followed by a strong bearish reversal. Given the overbought RSI and divergence in the MACD, a short-biased trade at the peak would have offered high potential with defined risk. A stop-loss placed above the 1.1086 level (previous high) and a take-profit at 0.9337 would have captured the majority of the move. This setup, combined with Fibonacci levels, presents a clear high-probability trade opportunity for the next 24 hours, assuming price remains within the defined volatility range.