Market Overview for FORMUSDC on 2025-10-06

• FORMUSDC traded in a 24-hour range of 1.0981–1.1521, closing near 1.1208 after a sharp afternoon rebound.
• Momentum was mixed, with RSI and MACD signaling overbought and oversold conditions at different points.
• Volatility spiked late afternoon with a large 15-minute candle, but volume was unevenly distributed.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion after a period of contraction, indicating increased uncertainty.
• A bullish engulfing pattern appeared during the rebound, but key support at 1.1034 may be tested if the trend reverses.

Market Summary

Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at 1.1085 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET-1, reaching a high of 1.1521 and a low of 1.0981, before closing at 1.1208 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET. Total 15-minute volume over the 24-hour period was 708,022.2 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $787,959 (assuming 1 USDC = $1).

The price action featured a dramatic reversal in the afternoon session, with a sharp rally from the 1.1081 level driven by a high-volume 15-minute candle that pushed the price to 1.1432. This followed a morning trend that saw a bearish bias with a key swing low at 1.0998 and a bearish engulfing pattern. A bullish engulfing pattern formed later in the session, which could signal short-term buying interest.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a clear bearish bias in the early part of the session, with a large bearish engulfing pattern forming around 17:45 ET. This suggested a potential short-term low. However, this was followed by a sharp reversal, with a bullish engulfing pattern emerging around 20:00 ET-1, indicating a possible short-covering rally. A doji formed at 22:45 ET-1, signaling indecision at the upper band of Bollinger Bands. Key support levels appear at 1.1034 and 1.0981, while resistance is at 1.1267 and 1.1365.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both below the current price at the end of the session, suggesting a potential bullish divergence. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was slightly above the 100-period MA but below the 200-period MA, indicating a long-term bearish trend with a short-term flattening. The price is currently trading slightly below the 50-day MA, which may act as a short-term resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the late afternoon, suggesting a short-term bullish momentum. The RSI moved into overbought territory around 1.1432 but quickly retreated back into neutral territory, indicating that the rally may not be sustainable. The divergence between the price high and RSI suggests caution about the strength of the rally. A bearish divergence in the RSI may appear if the price tests 1.1034 again.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands experienced a period of contraction between 16:15 ET-1 and 19:30 ET-1, suggesting a period of consolidation. Following that, a sharp expansion occurred due to the afternoon rally, with the price breaking above the upper band. This expansion indicates increased volatility and potential for a reversal if the price moves back into the band. The current price is trading near the upper band, which may offer resistance in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the afternoon rally, particularly in the 19:45 ET-1 to 20:30 ET-1 timeframe, where a large candle formed with 47,137.3 units traded. This suggests strong buying interest at the higher end of the range. However, turnover was unevenly distributed, with most of the volume concentrated in the 19:45 ET-1 to 21:45 ET-1 timeframe. A divergence between price and volume may emerge if the price fails to hold above 1.1208.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the morning low (1.0998) and the afternoon high (1.1432), the key retracement levels are at 1.1224 (38.2%), 1.1192 (50%), and 1.1160 (61.8%). The price closed near 1.1208, which is close to the 50% retracement level, suggesting that this area could act as a pivot point in the next session. A move below 1.1192 may test the 61.8% level at 1.1160.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position when the price breaks above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and the RSI exits overbought territory. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent swing low, while a take-profit target could be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This strategy would aim to capture short-term bullish momentum driven by a breakout from consolidation. The afternoon rally on October 6 appears to have partially aligned with this setup, particularly around 20:00 ET-1. If repeated in the next session, this strategy could prove profitable but requires careful risk management.