Market Overview for FORMUSDC on 2025-09-25

• FORMUSDC opened at 1.1732 and closed at 1.0478, recording a 24-hour high of 1.1817 and a low of 1.0422.
• A sharp bearish trend unfolded, with price dropping below key moving averages and confirming bearish momentum on RSI.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 24-hour period, particularly between 19:00 and 06:00 ET.
• Volume surged in the early hours of 2025-09-25, especially around 04:45 and 05:00 ET, indicating heightened market activity.
• Price rejected at the 1.14–1.15 range multiple times, suggesting key support levels are being tested.

The 24-hour session for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) started with a price of 1.1732 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24 and closed at 1.0478 on 2025-09-25. During the session, the pair reached a high of 1.1817 and a low of 1.0422. Total volume traded across 15-minute intervals was 148,303.2, while the notional turnover amounted to $166,482. The pair experienced pronounced volatility and bearish momentum, especially in the overnight and early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The price of FORMUSDC formed a distinct bearish trend throughout the session. A long bearish candle opened at 1.1505 at 07:15 ET and closed at 1.1531, followed by a sharp drop to 1.1413 at 08:30 ET. This bearish thrust was reinforced by a bearish engulfing pattern, suggesting a shift in sentiment toward sellers. Key support levels emerged at 1.13–1.14 and 1.12–1.13, both of which were tested multiple times. A bearish doji appeared at 03:45 ET, signaling indecision and possible reversal failure. Resistance levels at 1.15 and 1.16 have held firm, preventing any bullish bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward and confirmed the bearish bias. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, forming a death cross. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA were all in a downtrend, reinforcing the bearish setup. The price closed well below all three, with no immediate signs of a reversal in sight.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned increasingly negative after 05:00 ET, with the MACD line and signal line diverging sharply to the downside. This indicated a continuation of bearish momentum. The RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 at 06:45 ET and remained there for several hours. However, the price failed to rebound above 1.15–1.16, suggesting that the bearish sentiment remains strong and that any rally is likely to be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as the price moved within the lower Bollinger Band for most of the session. The bands widened between 19:00 and 06:00 ET, indicating a period of high uncertainty and strong seller participation. Price action consistently stayed below the middle band, confirming the bearish bias. A contraction in volatility occurred briefly near 06:00 ET, but it was quickly followed by another sharp decline.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked between 04:45 ET and 05:00 ET, with a 15-minute turnover of $152,868, representing the largest spike of the session. This came during a price drop from 1.1446 to 1.1346. Later, between 07:15 and 08:30 ET, volume increased again, coinciding with another sharp decline. A notable divergence was observed in the last hour, where price dropped further but volume declined, suggesting weakening momentum or potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 1.16–1.14 range, the 38.2% level at 1.1517 and the 61.8% level at 1.1438 were both tested multiple times. The 50% level at 1.15 played a key role as a psychological barrier. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level from the previous major swing high has now become a resistance level, further confirming the bearish structure.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could focus on a short-biased approach, targeting sell entries near the 1.15–1.16 resistance zone and stop-loss placement above 1.165. Given the consistent rejection at these levels and the bearish divergence in momentum indicators, the strategy could aim for a 1–1.5% risk-to-reward ratio. A trailing stop below the 1.13–1.14 support zone may help lock in gains while managing risk exposure. The key to success would be timing entries during periods of high volume and confirming the bearish setup with a bearish engulfing or shooting star pattern.