Market Overview for Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) – 2025-10-09

• Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) ended lower with a bearish close at $0.358, down from $0.361 24 hours ago.
• A broad consolidation pattern emerged after a sharp intraday high of $0.373, followed by a pullback.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, while volume surged in the early part of the session.
• Price traded within a tightening range near key support levels around $0.355–$0.357.
• Bollinger Bands show reduced volatility and suggest a potential breakout attempt.

Opening and Price Action

Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) opened at $0.361 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of $0.373 before reversing lower. By 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09, it closed at $0.358. The 24-hour volume totaled approximately 1,536,126.64, with a notional turnover of $541,197.90. The price action showed strong bearish momentum in the second half of the session, particularly after $0.372 failed to hold as support.

Structure and Candlestick Formations

Several key patterns emerged, including a bearish engulfing pattern around 06:00–06:30 ET and a series of doji around 07:00–09:30 ET, which signaled indecision and potential exhaustion. Support levels formed at $0.357 and $0.355 were tested multiple times, while resistance appeared to hold at $0.364–$0.366. A descending triangle pattern developed in the final hours, suggesting further consolidation or a potential breakdown.

Technical Indicators and Volatility

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both declined, with the price closing below both, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI reached oversold territory below 30 in the final 6 hours, suggesting a potential rebound. MACD showed a bearish crossover but with decreasing histogram volume, indicating weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly in the last 4 hours, signaling a possible breakout attempt.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Volume spiked early in the session with a strong move toward $0.373, but faded sharply as the price reversed lower. The divergence between price and volume suggests weakening conviction in the rally. In the last 12 hours, turnover dropped below $10,000 per hour, consistent with a consolidation phase. A large volume bar at 02:45 ET marked the start of the bearish reversal, indicating a shift in market sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key intraday swing from $0.359 to $0.373, the 61.8% level is at $0.363, which acted as a temporary resistance. The 38.2% level at $0.367 failed to hold as a support, leading to a breakdown into the lower retracement levels. The $0.355 level appears to be the next critical support, with a potential bounce or breakdown expected depending on the next session’s volume and order flow.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves identifying consolidation patterns followed by a breakout of Bollinger Bands with a reversal candlestick (e.g., bullish engulfing or hammer) at key support levels. The entry would be placed just above the support with a stop-loss below the consolidation range. This pattern was visible around 07:45 ET and 09:45 ET, where price attempted to rebound from $0.357 and $0.355. A successful confirmation of this pattern could suggest a short-term bounce or a larger trend reversal if volume supports it. The strategy emphasizes tight stop-loss and risk management, aligning with the current volatility profile of FLOWUSDT.