Market Overview for Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) on 2025-10-07

• Price action dipped below key support at 0.376, with a 15-minute RSI indicating oversold conditions.
• Volatility surged during the 06:45–08:15 ET window as Bollinger Bands widened, signaling potential trend continuation.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 05:00 ET, confirming downward momentum and a breakdown of the 0.38–0.384 range.
• Notional turnover reached $196,105.46 at 15:15 ET, suggesting increased selling pressure and potential for further downside.
• Momentum remains weak with MACD crossing below zero and the 20-period EMA dipping below the 50-period line.

Price Action and Key Levels

Over the past 24 hours, Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) opened at 0.38 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 0.36 at 12:00 ET, marking a significant decline. The pair reached a high of 0.384 and a low of 0.359. Total volume was 2.48 million, with a notional turnover of approximately $974,967. The breakdown below key support at 0.376 and the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern at 05:00 ET highlight the shift in sentiment. A test of 0.36–0.362 appears imminent, with 0.361 as the next critical support.

Trend and Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA crossed below the 50-period EMA, confirming bearish momentum. The 50-period EMA on the daily chart also appears to be dipping below the 100-period line. MACD is in negative territory, with the histogram showing increasing bearish divergence as of 06:45 ET. RSI has moved into oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce but not a reversal. The combination of bearish momentum and weak price action suggests the pair could continue testing lower levels.

Volatility and Bollinger Band Dynamics

Bollinger Bands expanded notably during the 06:45–08:15 ET window as volatility surged following a sharp drop to 0.36. The price has been sitting near the lower band since 08:30 ET, indicating a high volatility period that may consolidate before the next move. A contraction in band width could signal a potential reversal if RSI remains in oversold territory, but the current trend suggests a continuation rather than a reversal.

Fibonacci and Key Psychological Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent 15-minute swing (0.38–0.359) show 0.362 as a 38.2% level and 0.361 as the 61.8% level. The price currently hovers just above the 0.361 level, which could act as a short-term floor. On the daily chart, 0.36–0.37 represents a key psychological and technical barrier. A close below this level could trigger further selling pressure and take the price toward the next major support at 0.355–0.358.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for FLOWUSDT could be based on a combination of the 50-period EMA cross below the 200-period EMA as a trigger and RSI entering oversold territory as a filter. Given the current MACD divergence and bearish engulfing pattern, a short entry could be considered with a stop above the 0.375–0.376 resistance zone and a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.361. This setup would benefit from increased volume and momentum divergence observed throughout the 24-hour period, offering a high-probability short-term bearish trade.