Market Overview for Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) – 2025-10-05

• Price formed a bullish flag pattern within a tight consolidation range.
• Volatility expanded with a sharp rise in volume during the overnight session.
• RSI and MACD showed mixed momentum, suggesting potential for a breakout.
• Price tested a key 0.372 resistance level twice, failing to push higher.
• Notional turnover spiked sharply at 03:00 ET, coinciding with a strong upward move.

The Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) pair opened at 0.367 at 12:00 ET − 1 and traded in a narrow range until a sharp move higher late in the overnight session. The 24-hour high reached 0.385 at 08:15 ET, while the low held at 0.369. The pair closed at 0.378 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,622,693.71, and notional turnover came in at $617,918.25.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart show a consolidation pattern forming around the 0.372–0.376 range. A bullish flag is visible between 01:00 and 05:00 ET, followed by a potential breakout attempt that stalled at the 0.385 resistance. A series of higher highs and higher lows from 03:00 to 05:30 ET suggests increasing bullish pressure. A bearish engulfing pattern appears at 11:45 ET, signaling a potential short-term reversal. Key support levels are at 0.375 and 0.372, while resistance is at 0.38 and 0.385.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are crossing toward the upper end of the range, indicating a possible shift in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100 and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend. However, the 15-minute chart shows signs of exhaustion as the 20-period MA fails to break through the 50-period MA, which could indicate a pause before a resumption of the uptrend.

MACD on the 15-minute chart shows a bullish divergence after 03:00 ET, with the histogram expanding in positive territory, aligning with the volume increase. The RSI oscillated between 50 and 65 during the rally, staying in overbought territory for a period but without triggering a strong pullback. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late-night surge, indicating rising volatility. The price closed near the upper band, suggesting a strong bullish signal but also a potential for a near-term correction.

Volume and turnover showed a clear spike between 03:00 and 05:30 ET, with the highest notional turnover at 03:45 ET coinciding with the breakout attempt. This volume surge confirmed the strength of the move higher but also raised the possibility of profit-taking. Price and turnover aligned during the rally, with no clear divergence observed. However, a sharp drop in volume after the 03:45 ET peak may suggest a lack of follow-through buying.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart highlight 0.376 as the 38.2% level and 0.379 as the 61.8% level. These levels appear to have acted as support during the consolidation phase. The 0.372 level, representing the 23.6% retracement, has shown strong resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement is at 0.38, which aligns with the recent high. Price may test these levels again before breaking out.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using RSI and moving average crossovers on the 15-minute chart. Specifically, a long entry could be triggered when RSI drops below 30 (oversold) and the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA. A stop-loss would be placed below the nearest support level (e.g., 0.372), while a take-profit is set at the next Fibonacci level (0.379–0.38). Given the recent price behavior, this strategy could have captured part of the overnight rally. However, the bearish engulfing pattern and volume contraction post-05:30 ET suggest caution, as the strategy may need to account for false breakouts.