Market Overview for Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) on 2025-10-04

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• Price declined from a 0.387 high to a 0.376 low, forming bearish divergences near resistance.
• RSI oversold conditions emerged near 0.376, suggesting potential short-term recovery.
• Volume spiked at key breakdowns, confirming bearish bias but not yet signaling a reversal.
• Volatility expanded in the final 6 hours, with price fluctuating within Bollinger Band contraction.
• Key support levels at 0.376 and 0.373 now tested, with 0.382 and 0.385 acting as immediate resistance.

Opening and Price Movement

Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) opened at 0.379 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and traded between a high of 0.387 and a low of 0.376 before closing at 0.378 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period recorded a total trading volume of approximately 2,354,651.26 and a notional turnover of $900,997.33, showing elevated volatility and bearish sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The price chart exhibited bearish candlestick formations, including a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.383 and a hanging man near 0.379. These patterns suggest continued selling pressure and potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. A key support level was identified at 0.376, which held during the final hours of the 24-hour period, while resistance levels at 0.382 and 0.385 appear to be psychological thresholds for potential reversal or continuation.

Moving Averages and Indicators

The 15-minute chart shows the price closing below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average is approaching the 100-period line, suggesting a possible consolidation phase. The RSI dipped into oversold territory during the session, with a reading near 30, hinting at a potential short-term rebound. The MACD showed a negative crossover, confirming bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility increased significantly during the final 6 hours of the 24-hour period, with the price moving between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. A contraction occurred in the early hours of 2025-10-04, followed by a sharp expansion that coincided with the breakdown to 0.376. The price now sits near the lower band, which could trigger a retest of the 0.376 level or a countertrend bounce.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during key breakdowns near 0.38 and 0.376, confirming bearish price action. However, notional turnover did not increase proportionally during these moves, suggesting limited participation from large players. A divergence between price and turnover was noted as the price approached the lower Bollinger Band, which could indicate a potential reversal or continuation depending on market sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing patterns, oversold RSI readings, and breakdowns confirmed by volume, a short-term trading strategy could involve targeting short positions on retests of the 0.382–0.385 resistance zone with stop-loss placement above the 0.386–0.387 level. A long position may be considered on a confirmed close above the 0.384–0.385 range with a target at the 20-period moving average. A trailing stop could be used once the price breaks out of the Bollinger Band contraction and shows sustained momentum.