Market Overview: Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) on 2025-10-01

• Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) rose 13.2% in 24 hours, surging from $0.340 to $0.342 with strong volume near its high.
• A bullish breakout above prior resistance at $0.350 confirmed, now acting as support with increasing on-balance volume.
• RSI showed overbought conditions at 78, indicating short-term exhaustion, while MACD remained positive with converging lines.
• Volatility expanded post-09:00 ET, aligning with a sharp price move above $0.360, but no clear reversal patterns formed.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting heightened activity and risk, as price traded near the upper band for much of the day.

At 12:00 ET − 1, Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) opened at $0.340, surged to a high of $0.366, dipped to $0.340, and closed at $0.366 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour total volume reached 610,526.59 FLOW, with a notional turnover of approximately $216,535. The price trended upward after a midday breakout and showed strong buyer control in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bullish continuation pattern as it broke above the key resistance zone around $0.350, confirmed by the candle closing near the high. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at $0.360, signaling strong buying pressure. No significant reversal patterns, such as doji or hammers, appeared after the move up, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend may occur. A key support level appears to form near $0.361, where the price tested and bounced in late trading.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the short-term bullish momentum. The 50-period MA is now trending upward, aligning with the price direction. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is also rising, crossing above the 100-period MA earlier in the week, suggesting a longer-term positive trend. The 200-period MA remains below the current price level, but the gap is narrowing.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive in the final hours, with both lines converging upward and crossing above zero. This suggests increasing bullish momentum and a higher probability of further gains. The RSI hit 78 late in the day, indicating overbought conditions, though no immediate divergence appeared between price and RSI. The oscillator may pull back toward the 60–65 range in the near term, but as long as it remains above 50, bullish sentiment is likely to persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the breakout phase, with the Bollinger Bands widening to capture the sharp move from $0.350 to $0.366. The price closed near the upper band, indicating strong overbought pressure. The bands remain wide, suggesting continued volatility. The next support to watch is the mid-band at ~$0.358, which may offer a short-term floor if buyers remain active.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the late morning and early afternoon, peaking with a 15-minute candle that traded $124,519.64 in volume. The increase in notional turnover coincided with the breakout above $0.350, confirming the move. However, volume dipped slightly in the final hours, which could suggest a temporary pause in aggressive buying. No notable divergence between price and volume was observed, indicating strong alignment between price action and buying strength.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.340 to $0.366, the 61.8% retracement level is at $0.355, and the 78.6% level is at $0.359. The current close at $0.366 exceeds the 78.6% level, indicating that the trend is extending beyond the typical retracement range. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the broader downtrend remains in play at $0.350, now acting as a critical support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves using the 50-period MA as a trigger for long positions when it crosses above the 100-period MA, confirmed by a bullish engulfing candle and volume above average. Additionally, RSI below 30 is required for a potential short-term rebound into the MA crossover zone. The recent breakout aligns with the conditions described, suggesting this strategy could be tested on historical FLOWUSDT data.