Market Overview for FILUSDT (2025-09-18)

• Price action showed a bullish breakout with a high of $2.588 after consolidating in a range.
• RSI and MACD signaled strong momentum but approached overbought territory, indicating potential pullback.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, and volume surged during key price moves.
• Key support at $2.560 and resistance near $2.585 emerged from Fibonacci and candlestick formations.
• Turnover spiked at $2.582, confirming bullish continuation but hinting at short-term profit-taking.

The Filecoin/Tether pair (FILUSDT) opened at $2.477 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET and closed at $2.569 the following day, reaching a high of $2.588 and a low of $2.463. The total traded volume was 10,819,198.88 FIL, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $28,431,054.60 USD. Price surged through key resistance levels, forming bullish patterns and showing strong volume confirmation.

Structure & Formations

Price developed a clear bullish breakout from a descending triangle formation on the 15-minute chart, with key resistance at $2.585 and support at $2.560. Several bullish engulfing patterns emerged after the $2.540 level, particularly between 2025-09-17 22:30 and 2025-09-18 06:30. A doji appeared at $2.562, signaling possible indecision ahead. The formation from $2.463 to $2.588 created a strong impulsive leg, followed by a consolidation phase near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were crossed decisively to the upside, confirming a bullish bias. Price remained above both, with the 50-period line acting as dynamic support. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at $2.475 and 200-period MA at $2.450 were well below the current price, suggesting a strong uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line around $2.540, with positive divergence confirming the bullish momentum. RSI surged to 68–72 during the rally, nearing overbought territory, and showed a slight divergence at $2.588. This suggests that while momentum remains strong, short-term pullbacks or consolidation could occur.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout phase, with price reaching the upper band at $2.588. Volatility contraction occurred between $2.560 and $2.580 before the breakout, signaling a potential reversal. Price has since remained within the bands, indicating that the uptrend remains intact but with tightening momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked during the breakout, with the most significant activity between 2025-09-17 18:15 and 2025-09-18 03:15, particularly around $2.582. The volume profile confirmed the price action, with a clear imbalance in buying pressure during the breakout. A divergence between price and volume was observed at $2.588, suggesting potential exhaustion or short-term profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the $2.463–$2.588 swing, key levels at 61.8% ($2.566) and 50% ($2.525) were tested and held. The price consolidated around the 50% level before surging again. Daily Fibonacci levels also indicated strong support at $2.450 and resistance at $2.575, with the current price hovering near the 38.2% level for a potential follow-through.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the breakout of a descending triangle pattern with confirmation from the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, combined with RSI above 60 and high volume, could serve as a valid entry signal. A stop-loss could be placed below the breakout point, and a target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This strategy aligns with the observed price action over the 24-hour period, where the pattern and indicators provided a clear and confirmed entry point for long positions. Further optimization would involve testing this setup across multiple timeframes and market conditions to assess robustness.