Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether USDt (FILUSDT) – 2025-09-06

• Price tested key resistance near 2.350 and pulled back to consolidate near 2.320.
• Momentum dipped into oversold territory in early morning hours, followed by a modest rebound.
• Volatility expanded in late evening hours, with a large 15-minute candle breaking above 2.340.
• On-chain turnover increased sharply post-20:00 ET as buyers pushed FILUSDT toward 2.350.
• Downturn in early trading suggests bearish sentiment, but volume supports potential for a bullish counterattack.

Filecoin/Tether USDt (FILUSDT) opened at $2.323 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET, rose to a high of $2.355, and dropped to a low of $2.302 before closing at $2.313 on 2025-09-06 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 8,893,574 FIL, with a notional turnover of $21,150,648.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure shows a mixed bearish-bullish bias. After an early bearish trend, the pair bounced off the 2.320–2.325 support zone multiple times, forming a small bullish pattern resembling a bullish engulfing around 19:15–19:45 ET. A key resistance appears near 2.350–2.355, where the price reversed multiple times. A notable inverted hammer formed at 2.335 after 00:15 ET on 2025-09-06, hinting at a potential reversal. A large bearish candle at 2.342–2.336 after 02:15 ET suggests profit-taking or increased bearish pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA moved above the 50-EMA near 2.330–2.340, indicating a short-term bullish bias. However, the 50-EMA acted as a dynamic support in the early part of the day. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA appears to be near 2.325, while the 100- and 200-EMAs are lower, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend that is now being contested.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed zero into positive territory in the late evening, confirming a short-term bullish bias. RSI dropped into oversold territory (~30) around 01:45–02:00 ET, which coincided with a rebound in FILUSDT. By 05:00 ET, RSI had rebounded to ~50, suggesting balanced buyer-seller activity. However, RSI failed to hold above 60 in the late evening, indicating that overbought conditions did not lead to a sustainable bullish breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20-EMA as a dynamic entry signal and the 50-EMA as a stop-loss reference when RSI dips below 30. For example, a long entry could be triggered when the 20-EMA crosses above the 50-EMA, with a stop-loss placed at the most recent swing low. A trailing stop could be used as the 20-EMA moves higher. This approach would aim to capture short-term momentum with controlled risk, leveraging the pair’s tendency to retest and reverse near key moving average levels and RSI extremes. This aligns with the observed behavior on 2025-09-06, where the price bounced off the 2.320–2.325 level after multiple touches and showed clear momentum responses to RSI extremes.